It rarely happens, but sometimes Scott Sumner and I disagree and that is the case presently.
Scott sees Brexit as a major negative global shock, while I think that Brexit on its own is not really a big deal.
The paradox is that going into the latest political and market events Scott has actually been rather relaxed about both the global economy and the US economy, while I have been a lot more worried.
I have been worried that premature monetary tightening could send the US economy into recession and could blow the ‘dollar block’ up and in the process cause a major Chinese crisis and at the same time I have in the latest couple of months also started to worry that slowing nominal GDP growth in the euro zone could cause another ‘euro spasm’.
I very much worry about these issues and therefore I am hardly think…
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