Becker and Murphy on the Stimulus

Truth on the Market

I’ve got the over-under on Krugman name-calling directed at both set at noon EST tomorrow. Any takers? Anyway, here’s some key excerpts from the WSJ piece:

In a full-employment situation, increased government spending would largely replace private spending, so the net stimulus to GDP would likely be quite small. In the present environment, however, with growing unemployment of both labor and capital, the net stimulus would be larger since the additional government spending would put some unemployed resources to work.  For example, if the government spent money to build new homes with unemployed labor, the stimulus to GDP might be close to, even larger than, the amount spent. However, given the present housing glut, that hardly seems to be a wise policy, although it is a small part of both the House and Senate stimulus packages.

In fact, much of the proposed spending would be in sectors and on…

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Political ‘System Black’: South Australia’s Wind Power Debacle Turns Renewable Policy Toxic

STOP THESE THINGS

turnbull-frydenberg Can’t we just shut the door on SA and say it never happened?

***

Politics is a cruel game, at the best of times. But Australia’s renewable energy debacle is testing the wits of even the brightest of our political betters.

The political graveyard is littered with those brave and foolhardy enough to ignore the average voting punter; recent interments include Hillary Clinton, buried in a landslide of hostility toward arrogant, political elites.

In Australia, political corpses will soon mount up in the corridors of power, as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation sets to work in Western Australia and Queensland; annihilating Liberal, National and Labor candidates alike.

One Nation has chosen the easiest part of the battleground on which to destroy their flat-footed and tin-eared opponents: the delivery of secure, reliable and affordable power; something that is quite apparently beyond the grip of either the Liberal/National Coalition or Labor.

In the…

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BBC’s ME editor ditches impartiality in portrayal of ‘international law’

BBC Watch

h/t RM

When Jeremy Bowen was appointed to the post of Middle East editor in 2005, that role was described as follows:

“The challenge for our daily news coverage is to provide an appropriate balance between the reporting of a ‘spot news’ event and the analysis that might help set it in its context.

This challenge is particularly acute on the television news bulletins, where space is at a premium, and because the context is often disputed by the two sides in the conflict. To add more analysis to our output, our strategy is to support the coverage of our bureau correspondents with a Middle East editor. 

Jeremy Bowen’s new role is, effectively, to take a bird’s eye view of developments in the Middle East, providing analysis that might make a complex story more comprehensive or comprehensible for the audience, without the constraints of acting as a daily news correspondent. His…

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How much will Morgan’s capital tax cost you?

  Average house value January 2017

Morgan capital tax 6% return

Morgan capital tax 3.5% return

New Zealand

$631,302

$11,363

$6,629

Main Urban Areas

$754,572

$13,582

$7,923

Auckland Area

$1,047,699

$18,859

$11,001

Wellington Area

$582,322

$10,482

$6,114

Far North District

$389,811

$7,017

$4,093

Whangarei District

$463,319

$8,340

$4,865

Kaipara District

$463,896

$8,350

$4,871

Rodney District

$933,456

$16,802

$9,801

Rodney – Hibiscus Coast

$908,966

$16,361

$9,544

Rodney – North

$961,450

$17,306

$10,095

North Shore City

$1,214,291

$21,857

$12,750

North Shore – Coastal

$1,387,368

$24,973

$14,567

North Shore – Onewa

$971,364

$17,485

$10,199

North Shore – North Harbour

$1,189,924

$21,419

$12,494

Waitakere City

$836,574

$15,058

$8,784

Auckland City

$1,225,096

$22,052

$12,864

Auckland City – Central

$1,065,420

$19,178

$11,187

Auckland_City – East

$1,532,815

$27,591

$16,095

Auckland City – South

$1,107,912

$19,942

$11,633

Auckland City – Islands

$1,036,288

$18,653

$10,881

Manukau City

$901,422

$16,226

$9,465

Manukau – East

$1,158,197

$20,848

$12,161

Manukau – Central

$686,567

$12,358

$7,209

Manukau – North West

$781,110

$14,060

$8,202

Papakura District

$684,172

$12,315

$7,184

Franklin District

$660,557

$11,890

$6,936

Thames-Coromandel District

$645,780

$11,624

$6,781

Hauraki District

$359,520

$6,471

$3,775

Waikato District

$441,525

$7,947

$4,636

Matamata-Piako District

$398,682

$7,176

$4,186

Hamilton City

$531,337

$9,564

$5,579

Hamilton – North East

$678,886

$12,220

$7,128

Hamilton – Central & North West

$489,611

$8,813

$5,141

Hamilton – South East

$482,333

$8,682

$5,064

Hamilton – South West

$466,235

$8,392

$4,895

Waipa District

$490,723

$8,833

$5,153

Otorohanga District

$243,964

$4,391

$2,562

South Waikato District

$188,852

$3,399

$1,983

Waitomo District

$172,405

$3,103

$1,810

Taupo District

$418,130

$7,526

$4,390

Western Bay of Plenty District

$575,089

$10,352

$6,038

Tauranga City

$672,752

$12,110

$7,064

Rotorua District

$379,865

$6,838

$3,989

Whakatane District

$380,691

$6,852

$3,997

Kawerau District

$177,183

$3,189

$1,860

Opotiki District

$248,261

$4,469

$2,607

Gisborne District

$271,632

$4,889

$2,852

Wairoa District

$161,966

$2,915

$1,701

Hastings District

$392,182

$7,059

$4,118

Napier City

$419,099

$7,544

$4,401

Central Hawkes Bay District

$253,787

$4,568

$2,665

New Plymouth District

$415,761

$7,484

$4,365

Stratford District

$234,372

$4,219

$2,461

South Taranaki District

$198,934

$3,581

$2,089

Ruapehu District

$156,971

$2,825

$1,648

Whanganui District

$207,752

$3,740

$2,181

Rangitikei District

$163,111

$2,936

$1,713

Manawatu District

$289,350

$5,208

$3,038

Palmerston North City

$348,581

$6,274

$3,660

Tararua District

$163,877

$2,950

$1,721

Horowhenua District

$258,047

$4,645

$2,709

Kapiti Coast District

$482,723

$8,689

$5,069

Porirua City

$484,164

$8,715

$5,084

Upper Hutt City

$433,538

$7,804

$4,552

Lower Hutt City

$482,632

$8,687

$5,068

Wellington City

$702,081

$12,637

$7,372

Wellington – Central & South

$703,433

$12,662

$7,386

Wellington – East

$753,259

$13,559

$7,909

Wellington – North

$627,791

$11,300

$6,592

Wellington – West

$808,685

$14,556

$8,491

Masterton District

$276,020

$4,968

$2,898

Carterton District

$321,476

$5,787

$3,375

South Wairarapa District

$370,839

$6,675

$3,894

Tasman District

$498,111

$8,966

$5,230

Nelson City

$508,343

$9,150

$5,338

Marlborough District

$423,753

$7,628

$4,449

Kaikoura District

$398,058

$7,165

$4,180

Buller District

$183,573

$3,304

$1,928

Grey District

$211,780

$3,812

$2,224

Westland District

$234,405

$4,219

$2,461

Hurunui District

$378,276

$6,809

$3,972

Waimakariri District

$434,854

$7,827

$4,566

Christchurch City

$497,539

$8,956

$5,224

Christchurch – East

$371,157

$6,681

$3,897

Christchurch – Hills

$667,077

$12,007

$7,004

Christchurch – Central & North

$588,632

$10,595

$6,181

Christchurch – Southwest

$477,247

$8,590

$5,011

Christchurch – Banks Peninsula

$514,403

$9,259

$5,401

Selwyn District

$547,094

$9,848

$5,744

Ashburton District

$348,788

$6,278

$3,662

Timaru District

$335,449

$6,038

$3,522

MacKenzie District

$420,915

$7,576

$4,420

Waimate District

$229,085

$4,124

$2,405

Waitaki District

$260,433

$4,688

$2,735

Central Otago District

$411,111

$7,400

$4,317

Queenstown-Lakes District

$1,032,560

$18,586

$10,842

Dunedin City

$359,055

$6,463

$3,770

Dunedin – Central & North

$372,295

$6,701

$3,909

Dunedin – Peninsular & Coastal

$320,180

$5,763

$3,362

Dunedin – South

$342,080

$6,157

$3,592

Dunedin – Taieri

$375,669

$6,762

$3,945

Clutha District

$190,208

$3,424

$1,997

Southland District

$236,549

$4,258

$2,484

Gore District

$200,826

$3,615

$2,109

Invercargill City

$239,252

$4,307

$2,512

Liability is 6 percent of your capital equity which is then taxed at 30%. The return is assumed to be equal to the long-term bond rate for the last 10 years. That was 6% when Morgan wrote his book in 2011; that average long-term rate is about 3% now. I used his 2011 assumptions.

Just how big is Gareth Morgan’s great big new tax?

Morgan wants to raise an additional $13 billion in taxes, $8 billion from a capital tax and $5 billion a $5 billion from a 30% flat rate tax with a universal basic income of $11,000 per adult. $13 billion is 6.5% of the GDP of $197 billion in 2011. That is his latest numbers. A huge tax increase just after a global financial crisis is not the wisest fiscal policy.

Do wind and solar “complement” each other during winter?

Trust, yet verify

The second fact check of the “factchecker energy” of SER is titled: Is there a future for solar energy in the Netherlands?. Although the author of this fact check admits that solar energy only has a very tiny share (0.1% of the energy consumption) and it needs to be balanced by other flexible energy sources, he is very optimistic about the future. His “fact” check seem to rely on future developments related to solar energy.

As a whole, it seems a quite bland and overly optimistic fact check, but there was one statement that caught my attention (translated from Dutch, my emphasis):

There is a factor of ten difference between summer and winter output of solar panels. What the share of solar power in the electricity mix will be, will depend to a large extent on the developments in electricity storage (for short and longer periods) and of…

View original post 840 more words