Daily Archives: October 8, 2018

Paul Romer’s contributions

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The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s

This increase in the number of economists seem to coincide with the great inflation of the 60s and 70s and 1970s stagflation and a denial that inflation was a monetary problem

Mostly Economics

This is a superb paper by Beatrice Cherrier and Juan Acosta. In history of central banking, we barely look at role and evolution of economic research at the central bank. Did it influence policies and if yes in what way and if no why? Who were the key people in this economic research team and so on. Most of these people are also unsung but do quite a lot of work in the central bank.

This paper looks at eco research at Federal Reserve:

In this paper, we build on data on Fed officials, oral history repositories and hitherto under-researched archival sources to unpack the torturous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Fed. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed’s decision-making process and a process internal to the discipline whereby…

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reflection on sociology and the sokal 2.0 hoax

orgtheory.net

Last week, a trio of scholars perpetrated what people are now calling the “Sokal 2.0” hoax. They wrote 20 (!) papers on obviously bizarre and bogus topics and tried to get them published in various journals in the humanities and the “softer” social sciences. There are many commentaries you can read but I want to focus on two points:

First, if a scholarly community wants respect and financial support, they need to show that they can weed out garbage in their journals. That includes kooks, cranks, impostors, incompetents, and provocateurs. If editors can’t spot obvious trash, then they get what they deserve. The only people who deserve our sympathy are the peer reviewers, whose time was wasted.

Second, sociological journals rejected all the bogus manuscripts sent to them. On Twitter, Will Wilkinson had a good summary. The issue is that sociology is at its core a positivist discipline. That’s just…

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They must have had some good drugs back in the 80s; current 100m women’s record held by Florence Griffith-Joyner set in 1988

There was controversy over a tailwind, but the gap with the others could not be due to the wind. Her connection must be as good as any East German sports chemist. Marion Jones came close with 21.62 seconds in 1998 to Griffith-Joyner’s 200m record, which also still stands, before later admitting she had been doping.

That means that any decent high school boys athlete is faster than any woman who has ever lived by a good margin.

 

These US estimates are still small @jamespeshaw @mfe_news; mostly from loss of life which is the easiest to fix by mitigation and adaptation

From S. Hsiang el al., “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States,” Science (2017). science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi … 1126/science.aal4369  Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-06-climate-economy-inequality.html#jCp

Even runaway climate change of 6 to 8°C reduces GDP by by 2100! less than 10%

US has county level estimates but @jamespeshaw can’t estimate cost of global warming for NZ! @mfe_news says it is too hard!!

S. Hsiang el al., “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States,” Science (2017). science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi … 1126/science.aal4369  Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-06-climate-economy-inequality.html#jCp