@jeremycorbyn should welcome #toriesforcorbyn as shy Labour voters coming home to the long-awaited hard left policies

Jeremy Corbyn has done it. The working hypothesis of the far left everywhere is if the Labour Party were to adopt hard left policies, they would win many more votes.

The new votes include shy Labour voters parking their vote with the Tory party pending the call home to a true Labour Party.

They are parking their votes with other parties because they are fed up with a middle of the road Labour Party, such as the Blairite Labour Party. They are withholding their vote as punishment until the Labour Party returns to its roots and adopts hard left policies.

Rather than accept that their day has come, the left of the Labour Party is deeply suspicious of Tory party supporters wanting to join the Labour Party in anticipation of voting in hard left leadership in their current leadership election. What’s going on?

What seems to terrify the Labour Party is its old dream coming true: a large number of Tory party voters switching their support to Labour and joining the Labour Party because it might adopt hard left policies and a hard left leader who makes Michael Foot look like a pussycat.

What is more jarring than the fear of the Labour Left having its dreams come true is the Left of the British Labour is not showing against any insight into the genuine enthusiasm that the Tory party has for Jeremy Corbyn winning the election as leader of the Labour Party

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There is no misdirection here or double play. The Tory party wants Jeremy Corbyn to be elected leader of the Labour Party.

The Liberal Democratic party must see their resurrection coming in the form of Jeremy Corbyn as do UKIP in terms of making inroads into working-class labour electorates.

There are left-wing and fairly left-wing people who do vote for the Tory party and the LDP, but there’s not that many of them, and overall they only make up about 15% of the British electorate, and a small part of the left-wing vote not voting for left-wing parties.

It would seem more reasonable to follow the median voter theorem and go for those in the centre because there are plenty of them and only minor modifications of your platform are required to win their votes.

Why is the far left chasing with these shy Labour voters when there are plenty more middle of the road voters willing to vote for them in 2015 in the right circumstance?

…while the average UKIP or Tory voter is well to the right of Labour there are many Conservative and UKIP supporters who are in the centre ground and whose votes Miliband cannot afford to write off. For example, nearly four in ten UKIP supporters and 16% of Conservative voters place themselves on the centre point or to the left of centre.

The 35 heroes of #toriesforcorbyn

MPs nominations for Leader of the Labour Party – 35 MPs required

Burnham – 68

Cooper – 56

Corbyn – 35

Kendall – 40

Ian Lavery

Jess Phillips

Jon Trickett

Tristram Hunt

Steve Rotheram

Diana Johnson

Clive Lewis

Phil Wilson

Rachel Reeves

Khalid Mahmood

John McDonnell

Stephen Timms

Dan Jarvis

Sharon Hodgson

Michael Meacher

John Woodcock

Michael Dugher

David Hanson

Ronnie Campbell

Mike Gapes

Debbie Abrahams

Shabana Mahmood

Diane Abbott

Wes Streeting

Owen Smith

Steve Pound

Kelvin Hopkins

Margaret Hodge

Karl Turner

Helen Goodman

Richard Burgon

Toby Perkins

Emma Lewell-Buck

Helen Jones

Dennis Skinner

Alison McGovern

Yvonne Fovargue

Kevan Jones

Grahame Morris

Stephen Doughty

Kevin Brennan

Chris Bryant

Frank Field

Siobhain McDonagh

Luciana Berger

Seema Malhotra

Kate Osamor

Ann Coffey

Barbara Keeley

Kate Green

Cat Smith

Gavin Shuker

David Crausby

Vernon Coaker

Dawn Butler

Pat McFadden

Yasmin Qureshi

John Spellar

Jeremy Corbyn

Ivan Lewis

Lisa Nandy

Paula Sherriff

Chi Onwurah

Simon Danczuk

Andrew Gwynne

John Healey

Sarah Champion

Chuka Umunna

Lucy Powell

Daniel Zeichner

Emily Thornberry

Stephen Twigg

Graham Jones

Ian Austin

Sadiq Khan

Emma Reynolds

David Anderson

Jim Cunningham

Huw Irranca-Davies

Jonathan Reynolds

Conor McGinn

Karen Buck

Louise Haigh

Gisela Stuart

Anna Turley

Lyn Brown

Jo Cox

Paul Flynn

Keir Starmer

Steve McCabe

Imran Hussein

Nick Smith

Pat Glass

Liam Byrne

David Lammy

Chris Evans

Stephen Hepburn

Virendra Sharma

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Kevin Barron

Paul Farrelly

Judith Cummins

Margaret Beckett

Jenny Chapman

Bill Esterson

Ruth Cadbury

Jon Cruddas

Jim Dowd

Peter Dowd

Marie Rimmer

Gareth Thomas

Fiona MacTaggart

Harry Harpham

Andy Slaughter

Tulip Siddiq

Steve Reed

Rob Flello

Geraint Davies

Rushanara Ali

Joan Ryan

Rachael Maskell

Fabian Hamilton

Rupa Huq

Barry Sheerman

Justin Madders…

Geoffrey Robinson…

Andrew Smith

Angela Smith…

Source: Who’s backing whom and who did endorsers vote to be leader in 2010? | LabourList.

Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago

 

via Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago – Spectator Blogs.

The shy Tory voter versus the shy Labour voter (waiting for those hard left policies) – updated

The go left young man, go left strategy is a view of many in the Labour Party in New Zealand, Australia and the UK is if they present hard left policies to the electorate, they will mobilise many more votes from people who are currently don’t vote or who are mysteriously parking their vote with the Tory party or other centre parties.

Michael Foot’s attempt at to get out shy Labour voters with a hard left campaign in the 1983 British general election, which lead to his manifesto earning the title the longest suicide note in history.

The eight foot high stone monolith Ed Miliband planned to erect in the garden of number 10 Downing Street, if he could get planning permission, was dubbed the heaviest suicide note in history.

The New Zealand Labour Party went left at the 2014 general election and for its troubles earned its lowest party vote since the party was founded in 1919.

Central to the strategy of the New Zealand Labour Party in the 2014 general election was mobilising non-voters in their working-class electorates.

The median voter theorem be dammed! The New Zealand Labour Party in the 2014 general election honestly believed that hard left policies would induce these non-voters to vote.

These non-voters are called the missing million by the New Zealand left . Almost one million people did not vote in 2014; 250,683 were not enrolled, while 694,120 were enrolled but did not turn out to vote. Many of these voters were thought to be just parking their vote pending the arrival of true believers to lead the Labour Party if the Left over Left is to be believed! Many of these non-voters are younger voters who generally are more likely to vote left.

The Internet – Mana party also spent an immense amount of the $4 million donated by Kim.com in trying to turn out to the youth voter as well.

Chris Trotter was wise and prophetic on go left young man, go left and the shy Labour voters will come:

[T]he Left has been given an extraordinary opportunity to prove that it still has something to offer New Zealand …..

If Cunliffe and McCarten are allowed to fail, the Right of the Labour Party and their fellow travellers in the broader labour movement (all the people who worked so hard to prevent Cunliffe rising to the leadership) will say:

“Well, you got your wish. You elected a leader pledged to take Labour to the Left. And just look what happened. Middle New Zealand ran screaming into the arms of John Key and Labour ended up with a [pitiful] Party Vote …

So don’t you dare try peddling that ‘If we build a left-wing Labour Party they will come’ line ever again! You did – and they didn’t.”

Be in no doubt that this will happen – just as it did in the years after the British Labour Party’s crushing defeat in the general election of 1983. The Labour Right called Labour’s socialist manifesto “the longest suicide note in history” and the long-march towards Blairism … began.

The most obvious flaw in the missing million and non-voter argument where they are waiting for true believers to offer hard left policies is a countries with much higher rates of voter turnouts and compulsory voting are not more likely to have left-wing governments.

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There is much more evidence of shy Tory voters rather than shy Labour voters.

Shy Tory voters is a name invented by British opinion polling companies in the 1990s. The share of the vote won by the Tories in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.

The final opinion polls gave the Tories between 38% and 39% of the vote – 1% behind the Labour Party. In the final results, the Conservatives had a lead of 7.6% over Labour and won their fourth successive general election.

Because of this turnout of shy Tory voters, the Tories won 3 million more votes than the Labour Party. This 14 million votes was more votes than they or any other British political party is ever won in a British general election, breaking the record set by Labour in 1951.

In a subsequent marketing research port, it was found a significant number of Tory party supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions both the opinion poll companies, and exit polls.

This shy Tory factor is so large that opinion poll companies attempt to account for it in the weights they assign in their opinion polls surveys.

One of the explanations behind the turnout of the shy Tory vote in the 2015 British general election was a fear that a Labour Party minority government would be be holding to the hard left Scottish nationalists.

A number of British media commentators talked about running into many ordinary people expressing that very fear and they were undecided voters. About 20% of British voters were undecided on the eve the election, which is an unusually high amount.

Ironically, Neil Kinnock, the British Labour Party leader in the 1992 election, warned of a shy Tory factor a few days before the current British general election.

Tony Blair was much blunter a few months before the British general election about the relevance of the median voter theorem  to British politics and the future of the British Labour Party. The most electorally successful politician in Labour history said that May’s general election risks becomes one in which a

traditional left-wing party competes with a traditional right-wing party, with the traditional result.

Asked by the Economist magazine if he meant that the Conservatives would win the general election in those circumstances, Mr Blair replied: “Yes, that is what happens.”

The post-mortem by the New Statesman called “10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for” equally blunt about the role of Tony Blair in rescuing British labour from permanent oblivion:

Many of your drinks will be prompted by variations on this perennial theme. Labour accepted the austerity narrative. Labour weren’t green enough. Labour weren’t radical (which has somehow come to be used as a synonym for left-wing).

Given that the last time Labour won an election without Tony Blair was 1974 it’s hard to believe people still think the answer is to move left. But people still do. I sort of love these people for their stubbornness. But I don’t want them picking the next leader.

The shy Tory vote stirred by the fears of a hard left government happened in the 2014 New Zealand general election. On the Monday night for the election that Saturday, the Internet – Mana party board had an hour of television for their Moment of Truth. This included Edward Snowden beamed in  from Moscow put forward a whole range of bizarre conspiratorial theories about NASA surveillance of New Zealand and analysis by base in Auckland.

David Farrar reported that in Tuesday night opinion polling, the National party’s party vote rose from 44% to 47%. In the subsequent general election that Saturday, the national party led all night for the first time. It won as many votes as it did in the previous election when it was expected to lose votes because the national party government was going into its third term.

One reason  for shy Tory voters is expressive voting. People obtain more sense of identity by proclaiming themselves to be a left-wing voter than they do from saying that they are a right-wing voter.

The expressive aspect of voting is “action that is undertaken for its own sake rather than to bring about particular consequences” (Brennan and Lomasky 1993, 25). There is almost never a causal connection between an individual’s vote and the associated electoral outcome. Hence, a vote is not disciplined by opportunity cost.

With no opportunity cost of how you vote in terms of deciding the outcome, people vote expressively to affirm their identity. Voting is about who and what you boo and cheer for and how you present yourself to the world.

Through the fatal conceit and the pretence to knowledge, a left-wing vote allows people to identify with doing good and changing the world for the better. No point in voting that way if you don’t go around thumping your chest proclaiming yourself as doing good for others by voting Left including telling the truth to polling companies.

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