I’ve mentioned in posts over the last few days The Treasury’s estimate that the current “Level 4” restrictions will have reduced GDP by about 40 per cent relative to normal levels and the Reserve Bank’s estimate of a 35 per cent reduction. Both estimates seem a lot more realistic than some of the private sector estimates that were still doing the rounds early in the week. But I still reckon the Reserve Bank estimate, in particular, is almost certainly too low – especially if we are concerned, as we should be, with the “true” reduction in the volume of economic activity, not with what SNZ may initially report (accurate measurement is going to be a challenge).
What makes me sceptical? Well, there is the fact that our partial lockdown seems to be more restrictive, particularly (but not exclusively) on economic dimensions, than those in many other countries. Thus ANZ…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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