Randomized Control Trials in the Field of Development: A Critical Perspective (Webinar)
05 Feb 2021 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, econometerics, economics of bureaucracy, economics of information, experimental economics, history of economic thought, Public Choice Tags: philosophy of science, The fatal conceit
The two words missing from @TheAusInstitute tweet on #globalwarming #climateemergency in Western Sydney
04 Jan 2020 Leave a comment
in economics of climate change, energy economics, experimental economics, global warming, politics - Australia
When the lab rats are smarter
12 Nov 2019 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, behavioural economics, econometerics, economics of information, experimental economics, industrial organisation Tags: The fatal conceit
Angus Deaton on randomised trials and the class war
03 Nov 2019 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, econometerics, economics of bureaucracy, experimental economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, labour economics, law and economics, Public Choice Tags: The fatal conceit
Anti-Science Left in a nutshell despite a #ClimateEmergency
04 Sep 2019 Leave a comment
in energy economics, experimental economics, global warming
Can behavioural economists explain why incentives work in an asylum for the criminally insane
07 Aug 2019 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, behavioural economics, comparative institutional analysis, experimental economics, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice Tags: economics of mental illness, token economies
The Fog That Killed 12,000 People
02 Jun 2019 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of regulation, experimental economics Tags: air pollution
@Greenpeace destroyed test crops so they could spend 20 years saying there isn’t enough testing @GreenpeaceNZ
23 Nov 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, environmentalism, experimental economics, health economics
Mises on experimental economics
16 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in experimental economics, Ludwig von Mises Tags: methodology of economics, philosophy of economics
The $10 experiment
27 Feb 2015 Leave a comment
in experimental economics, liberalism, Rawls and Nozick Tags: distributive justice
Global warming has little impact on agricultural production, even in the 2080s
23 Jan 2015 Leave a comment
in experimental economics, politics - USA Tags: climate alarmism, global warming
HT: https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/514432333756514305?s=09
A market in which prices always fully reflect available information is called efficient
27 Jun 2014 Leave a comment
in experimental economics, financial economics, market efficiency Tags: efficient markets hypothesis
Source: John Cochrane
A share market that jumps suddenly when there is news of change in economic corporate fortunes is efficient.
This means that an efficient market can be highly volatile because it is rapidly incorporating changes in information. An efficient market is a volatile market.
As for smart money managers beating an efficient market, John Cochrane explains:
…efficiency implies that trading rules — “buy when the market went up yesterday”– should not work.
The surprising result is that, when examined scientifically, trading rules, technical systems, market newsletters, and so on have essentially no power beyond that of luck to forecast stock prices.
This is not a theorem, an axiom, a philosophy, or a religion: it is an empirical prediction that could easily have come out the other way, and sometimes does.
Efficiency implies that professional managers should do no better than monkeys with darts. This prediction too bears out in the data.
It too could have come out the other way. It should have come out the other way! In any other field of human endeavour, seasoned professionals systematically outperform amateurs. But other fields are not as ruthlessly competitive as financial markets.
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