Why are French jobs so miserable and dangerous?

image

Data extracted on 08 Mar 2017 01:49 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

..

Advertisements

Cohabitation after the French presidential and parliamentary elections

The run-off in the next French presidential election in May is likely to be between an independent who was formerly a socialist party economy minister and the National Front candidate. Over 80% of French vote for other parties so these parties are likely to still do well in the parliamentary election that will occur in June.

This leads to what was supposed to have been solved by making the presidential and parliamentary terms the same 5 years which is cohabitation.

The French system is a semi-presidential system. The president is directly elected but the Prime Minister must have the confidence of the National Assembly.

When the prime minister comes from the same party as the president, the French president reigns supreme and chooses his own Prime Minister from within his party. The French Constitution naturally is silent on the ability of the president to dismiss the prime minister.

There were several periods where the president and prime minister were from different parties. This was known as cohabitation. They occurred with the Mitterrand-Chirac Period (1986-1988), Mitterrand-Balladur Period (1993-1995) and Chirac-Jospin Period (1997-2002).

Each of these periods, the president largely confined himself to foreign affairs and defence with the Prime Minister running the internal affairs of the country. The Prime Minister or other ministers must countersign almost all of the official acts of the French president.

When a French president who was cohabitating with a political opponent refused to sign official decrees and other documents, the Prime Minister can always pass an act of Parliament.

It is important for the National Front candidate to note that in times of cohabitation, many argue that the French system becomes a Parliamentary system with the president having few powers.

It is the Prime Minister, not the President, who under Article 21 of the constitution “directs the action of government,” under Article 20 “shall determine and conduct the policy of the Nation, ” and also “ensures the execution of laws,” and “proposes constitutional amendments to the president.”  The Prime Minister’s government can legislate through decrees, ordinances, and regulations, and, under Article 38 of the constitution, may ask the National Assembly to delegate power to issue decrees in areas normally under the legislature’s jurisdiction.

Short of dissolving parliament and calling for new elections, the president is left with little power to influence public policy. The main independent power of the French president is to dissolve parliament at his own initiative. There is no requirement for the Prime Minister to countersign.

clip_image002

The National Front has two seats in the outgoing French National Assembly. In the 2-round system of French Parliamentary elections, there is a run-off between the candidates who receive more than 12.5% of the vote on a first past the post basis.

That system will apply again in the forthcoming Parliamentary elections in July making it very difficult for the National Front to break through  to a parliamentary majority even with a presidential win.

Candidates who advance to the second round have the option of withdrawing and 3rd placed candidates often do for tactical reasons. The parties of the mainstream left have a long-standing agreement whereby they do not stand against one another in the second round. The less-well-placed automatically withdraws.

The National Front ran for president over the years as a way of raising its profile. Winning the presidency is of no moment unless there is success also in the parliamentary elections.

A newly elected National Front presidential cannot dismiss the socialist prime minister. The National Front may boast its current two seats to be a minor coalition partner after the parliamentary elections.

College and post-graduate wage premium in the English speaking countries, France, S. Korea, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden

image

Source: Education at a Glance 2015, section 6.

Tertiary educational attainment, 2000 and 2014, USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Australia

The British, Australians, and Italians experienced strong growth in tertiary attainment since the year 2000. In the case of the Italians, it was from a low base. There is still a big difference in tertiary attainment between English-speaking and other countries.

image

Source: OECD Factbook 2015-2016.

German, French, British, and US real housing prices, March 1975 to March 2016

Still have not seen a decent explanation for why German housing prices seem to fall for decades on the trot.

image

Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed.

Equilibrium unemployment rate: USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada & Australia, 1985-2017

I do admire the way in which the USA has been able to have a steadily falling equilibrium unemployment rate since 1984 through thick and thin. The Great Recession had no impact on the US equilibrium unemployment rate. Not only has the largest member been able to do this, the OECD host country (red squares) has had a pretty steady natural unemployment rate too all things considered.

image

Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2016 Data extracted on 01 Jun 2016 12:40 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

Gap in GDP per Australian, Canadian, French, German, Japanese, New Zealander and British hour worked with the USA

This data tells more of a story than I expected. Firstly, New Zealand has not been catching up with the USA. Japan stopped catching up with the USA in 1990. Canada has been drifting away from the USA for a good 30 years now in labour productivity.image

Data extracted on 28 May 2016 05:15 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat from OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2016 – en – OECD.

Australia has not been catching up with the USA much at all since 1970. It has maintained a pretty consistent gap with New Zealand despite all the talk of a resource boom in the Australia; you cannot spot it in this date are here.

Germany and France caught up pretty much with the USA by 1990. Oddly, Eurosclerosis applied from then on terms of growth in income per capita.

European labour productivity data is hard to assess because their high taxes lead to a smaller services sector where the services can be do-it-yourself. This pumps up European labour productivity because of smaller sectors with low productivity growth.

Waiting for the permits to come in: business start-up fees and lost output waiting in Europe and North America

Expediting the processing of permits can actually make quite a difference to firm start-up costs even in countries with few barriers to starting up a business.

image

Source: Markus Poschke (2011) Entry regulation: Still costly | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal.

Note: The value of time is set to a business day’s output per day of waiting time at 22 business days per month.