Tim Sablik of the Richmond Fed interviews “Ellen McGrattan: On measuring what businesses do, developing effective tax policy, and searching for answers beyond the lamppost” (Econ Focus: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, First/Second Quarter 2026). Here are a few of the comments that caught my eye: How did McGrattan become interested in business cycles? In…
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
17 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, Edward Prescott, entrepreneurship, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, human capital, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, occupational choice, Robert E. Lucas
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
11 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in Austrian economics, business cycles, economic history, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Murray Rothbard Tags: monetary policy
SummaryIn 1973, when the first edition of For a New Liberty was published, Keynesians were still sitting pretty. Five years later, the Keynesians had so much egg on their faces that Rothbard was inspired to add this entirely new chapter on “Inflation and the Business Cycle: The Collapse of the Keynesian Paradigm” to his revised…
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
Oil and monetary policy
10 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, defence economics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, energy economics, financial economics, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment, war and peace Tags: 1973 oil crisis, monetary policy, oil shocks
I didn’t have too much problem with either the Reserve Bank Governor’s speech a couple of weeks ago on a framework for how monetary policy might deal with the oil shock, or with this week’s OCR review release from the Monetary Policy Committee. It was really all very orthodox stuff, much as any of the […]
Oil and monetary policy
Keep history on bank notes
03 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
The Bank of England has announced that they plan to replace famous historical figures from their banknotes, and replace them with cute animals. No I’m not joking. They cite a poll and the fact animals are harder to counterfeit. Their current notes are: All great choices – their most famous PM, author, painter and mathematician.…
Keep history on bank notes
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
27 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, growth disasters, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina
I’ve been participating in a conference in Argentina this week on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” Part I reviewed the horrible economic conditions that plagued Argentina when Javier Milei took office. Part II looked at Milei’s spending restraint and some of the subsequent improvements in fiscal outcomes. Part III examined Milei’s remarkable progress with regards to […]
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When recessions hit, the US Federal Reserve lowers its target interest rate–the “federal funds interest rate.” This interest rate applies to extremely safe borrowing: essentially, to overnight borrowing by large and safe financial institutions. The idea is that by altering this ultra-safe interest rate, other riskier interest rates will also be under pressure to adjust,…
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
The actual helicopter drop?
07 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, financial economics, growth disasters, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, Milton Friedman, monetarism, monetary economics, property rights
When Milton Friedman pondered what would happen if a helicopter dropped $1,000 from the sky, he likely never imagined that one day a military cargo plane would scatter millions of dollars into one of Bolivia’s largest cities. But while the Nobel Prize-winning economist worried about the inflation that an influx of cash could generate, the impact in…
The actual helicopter drop?
The economics of currency values
25 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, economic history, financial economics, international economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Japan
That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt: What else are currency values telling us today? The Japanese yen continues a very weak run, now coming in at about 158 to the U.S. dollar. I can recall when it was common for the yen to stand at about 100…
The economics of currency values
Yellen on Fiscal Dominance
17 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics
“Fiscal dominance” refers to a situation where government debt grows so large that the nation’s central bank feels that it has little choice except to focus on making sure the government does not default–even if it means a surge of inflation. Janet Yellen described the issue and risks of fiscal dominance concisely in her comments…
Yellen on Fiscal Dominance
In His Quest for Easy-Money Policy, Trump Launches Lawfare Against the Federal Reserve
14 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: monetary policy
When he first ran for President, I observed that Trump was a big-government Republican. This doesn’t mean he’s part of the moderate GOP establishment, like Bush and Romney. But it does mean that there is considerable overlap in terms of supporting bad policy, as indicated by my last two columns. Yesterday, I wrote about his […]
In His Quest for Easy-Money Policy, Trump Launches Lawfare Against the Federal Reserve
Reserve Bank sees sense
08 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
The Reserve Bank announced: “Following the completion of the review commissioned by the Board in March, we are pleased to announce modernised capital rules that will support an efficient and resilient financial system,” said Rodger Finlay, Chair of the RBNZ Board. “We recalibrated our risk appetite to have regard to our new Financial Policy Remit,…
Reserve Bank sees sense
Political pressure on the Fed
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
The Out-Sized Importance of Today’s Mid-Term Elections in Argentina
27 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, development economics, economic growth, fiscal policy, growth disasters, growth miracles, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina
I explained two months ago that Argentina’s mid-term elections are critically important, and here’s some of what I said in an interview with Austin Peterson. I’ll be paying close attention to the results later today for three reasons. The mid-term elections will determine whether Milei has legislative support for the additional reforms that are desperately […]
The Out-Sized Importance of Today’s Mid-Term Elections in Argentina
My excellent Conversation with George Selgin
19 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and George discuss the surprising lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the New Deal, whether revaluing gold was really the best path to economic reflation, how much Glass-Steagall and other individual parts of the New Deal mattered, Keynes’ “very […]
My excellent Conversation with George Selgin
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
Recent Comments