Youth unemployment in America by sex and education

The role of new taxes in the Great Recession

 .

Real GDP per Japanese and American aged 15-64, 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS PPP, detrended, 1970-2013

image

Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics.

Note: When the line is flat, the economy is growing at its trend growth rate. A falling line means below trend growth; a rising line means of above trend growth. Detrended with values used by Edward Prescott.

The Japanese decline after 1992 are the Lost Decades. Japan recently returned to its 3.2% trend growth rate of the 1970s and 1980s for working age Japanese.

It could be argued that Japan is now on a permanently lower growth rate that implies no further catch up with the USA.

Employment losses after recent financial crises

Recent New Zealand economic growth

Has the USA moved to lower trend GDP growth path?

image

HT: Jagadeesh Gokhale

The Great Recession was driven by a collapse in hiring

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Interview with Robert Lucas on the global financial crisis and the great recession

Robert Lucas on Depression era policies and current financial crisis

Explicit and implicit marginal tax rate increases in the past seventy years in the USA

CaseyMulligan

HT: After New Keynesian Macroeconomics

Economic policy uncertainty in the USA

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Source: Nicholas Bloom (2014)  – all data at www.policyuncertainty.com. Data normalized to 100 prior to 2010.

US corporate earnings vs. European corporate earnings

Euroland and Japan compared since 2008

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/533264502142545920

Some graphs on the great deviation on both sides of the Atlantic

Figure 1: Actual and potential GDP in the US

Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 2: Actual and potential GDP in the Eurozone

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Databases, Bloomberg

HT: Larry Summers

David Friedman on the causes of the global financial crisis and the great recession

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