The upside of hate speech laws

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Gun deaths by cause

If prison does not deter, why do low security prisoners fear maximum security?

About 15 to 20% of New Zealand prisoners are in maximum security. The rest of these prisoners are in medium to low security prisons where it is much easier to escape.

Most New Zealand prisoners have about 40 to 50 previous convictions, with serious and violent assaults (21%), sexual offences (20%), home invasions and burglary (14%), aggravated robbery and robbery (9%), and homicide (7%) which together add to 71%. Drug traffickers make up another 12%.

My point is most New Zealand prisoners are serious offenders but most of them can be trusted not to escape even when in low security and prison farms. The threat of returning to maximum security upon recapture is incentive enough to keep them on the straight and narrow.

There is quite a serious literature on how variations in prison conditions, prison overcrowding and deaths of prisoners acts as a deterrent. You do not have to watch all that many American TV shows to notice they plea-bargain with promises of a prison near their family, in a warmer climate and lower security rating. Maximum-security, far away and surrounded by gang members is more than enough to keep most prisoners in line.

The strongest argument that prison deters crime is made by opponents of 3 strikes legislation. They claim that without the prospect of parole, prisoners are be more difficult to manage in prison. That is an incentive argument, that the dim prospect that parole perhaps decades hence has powerful incentive effects. QED

Is travelling in Papua New Guinea that dangerous?

The Manus Island debates led me to notice I have travelled in far more dangerous places such as the Philippines. Also, if you are thinking are going to Bali, read its travel advisory.

When travelling to the Philippines, we make sure we are already outside of Manila because of the stray bullets on New Year’s Eve. There are guns everywhere. A M-16 looks a lot smaller in the flesh than on the telly.

Philippine banks have 3 security guards at the front with guns pointing horizontally ready to go at bank robbers. The Manila airport chief was assassinated a few years ago because she crackdown on corruption. The assassination was by a sniper.

Everything from airports to discos in the Philippines have gun deposit booths so that you and your bodyguards can deposit your guns at the door and collected them on the way out.

In Leyte, where we holiday at Christmas with family, it is common for politicians to have private armies of several dozen. When I was in the Philippines for a presidential election, there is a murder every day often of a rival candidate

My point is that the PNG is not the only dangerous country in Asia. If the asylum seekers from Afghanistan, and some are, the travel advisory is you are not safe even if you bring your own bodyguards.

About 200 of the residents of that camp have been denied asylums because their claims were not deemed to have merit. I do not see why Australia has any responsibility for them now. They are free to travel anywhere in PNG and anywhere else that will give them a visa.

Why no boat people via PNG? Why from Indonesia?

The northernmost tip of Australia is 5 km from Papua New Guinea. Instead, boat people take off from Indonesia in leaky boats too unseaworthy to get to where they are going, much less be turn backed, to land on Christmas Island which is an offshore territory. A strong swimmer could get to the State of Queensland from Papua New Guinea on a good day. A decent paddle boat would do the job.

If the PNG authorities tolerated people smuggling, their relationship with Australia would be jeopardised. On the other hand, there is plenty of votes at the ballot box in Indonesia from sticking it to Australia. Little wonder that a substantial part of the Pacific solution to illegal maritime arrivals by boat people is bribing Indonesian authorities to crack down on people smuggling.

.@Greens policy would have meant many more drownings of boat people

Source: THE RIGHT WAY FORWARD ON REFUGEES HUMANE, EFFECTIVE, LEGAL The Greens’ plan for a genuine regional response and safer pathways.

The most recent policy of the Australian Greens drops the above ideas about an open border but has other weird things like a skilled refugee visa. Very odd for a social justice policy. Obviously all well-founded fears of persecution are not created equal. The university educated deserve more protection. Good luck assessing a claim for asylum within 30 days, much less an identity check.