Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
25 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in economic growth, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
The world’s most under-appreciated problem is demographic decline mixed with tax-and-transfer entitlement programs. Those two factors, when combined, are a massive problem. All of which is explained in my series on demographic change and fiscal crisis (see here, here, here, here, and here). Today, let’s focus on the problem in Europe, building on what I […]
Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom
10 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
09 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society, economics of immigration, population bust
Lyric Waiwiri-Smith at The Spinoff asked me what I thought the options might be for dealing with rising superannuation costs. Her story’s here, along with comment from Max Rashbrooke and Shamubeel Eaqub. My most-preferred option is ongoing increases in immigration rates, coupled with shifting to CPI-indexation of super benefits and indexing the age of eligibility to healthy…
Superannuation affordability options
07 May 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of love and marriage, gender, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
18 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, environmentalism, growth disasters, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: pessimism bias, population bomb, population bust
His famous 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” changed the world. He famously predicted that human “overpopulation” would soon outstrip food supplies, leading to catastrophic famines, and societal collapse. He predicted that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the 1970s and 1980s, that India would be unable to feed its population by 1980, and…
‘Ever-wrong Ehrlich’s’ Greatest Hits (er, misses)
25 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
13 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
Demography is the study of the structure of human populations, including factors like births, deaths, aging, as well as health and economic factors. Some demographic changes happen slowly, over decades, but in a predicable way. For example, if you want to look at projections for the year 2050 of the ratio of the US working-age…
Some Snapshots of the US Demographic Future
02 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
16 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
If you want to know why I’m pessimistic about Europe (particularly compared to the U.S.), this chart is a good example. It shows that many European nations have enormous long-run liabilities for their Social Security systems. It’s an understatement to observe that Spain, Austria, and Italy have very grim fiscal futures. Keep in mind that […]
Europe’s Grim Fiscal Future
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, urban economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
I have a five-part series (here, here, here, here, and here) explaining that demographic decline will lead to fiscal crisis. The main takeaway is that entitlement programs are a ticking time bomb, and I castigate politicians who want to kick the can down the road (or make a bad situation even worse). This is a global problem, not merely an American problem, as […]
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
I often get asked when the United States will suffer a Greek-style fiscal crisis. My answer is always “I don’t know,” though I freely admit we are heading in that direction. My lack of specificity isn’t merely because economists are lousy forecasters. I tell people it’s all about investor sentiment, and it’s hard to know […]
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
02 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, China, population bust
09 Sep 2025 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, economics of fertility, population bust
15 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, economics of fertility, population bust
12 Jun 2025 1 Comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
Japan must stop being overly optimistic about how quickly its population is going to shrink, economists have warned, as births plunge at a pace far ahead of core estimates. Japan this month said there were a total of 686,000 Japanese births in 2024, falling below 700,000 for the first time since records began in the […]
Japan facts of the day
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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