We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply,…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
The Cult | A Net Zero Watch Short Film
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of climate change, economics of education, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, movies
The brilliant Colin Brazier returns for our second short film on the cult of Net Zero and how it protects ‘green’ policies from being questioned by stifling debate and cracking down on free speech.
The Cult | A Net Zero Watch Short Film
Jesus ‘n’ Mo ‘n’ conceptual conservatism
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of education Tags: cognitive psychology, political psychology, regressive left
This week’s Jesus and Mo strip, called “bells,” came with a comment: “Does she think they were born yesterday?” Wikipedia tells us that another word for “conceptual conservatism” is “belief perseverance,” and characterizes it this way: Belief perseverance (also known as conceptual conservatism) is maintenance of a belief despite new information that firmly contradicts it.[2] Since rationality involves conceptual…
Jesus ‘n’ Mo ‘n’ conceptual conservatism
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 4
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, comparative institutional analysis, economics of bureaucracy, industrial organisation, law and economics, liberalism, Murray Rothbard, privatisation, Public Choice
Update: I’m doing a Substack Live today on You Have No Right to Your Culture with the Boyd Institute’s Peter Banks. 4 PM ET.SummaryThis is the shortest chapter of the book, just six pages long. Rothbard makes a laundry list of what he calls “the major problem areas of our society” and argues that government…
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 4
Laying Off Workers: Cheap vs. Expensive
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
When thinking about what makes an economy flourish, many of us tend to focus on the success stories of innovation and growth. After all, success stories involve an element of risk, which means a chance of failure. When it’s more expensive to fail, then avoiding the risk of failure–by avoiding innovative but risky business choices–starts…
Laying Off Workers: Cheap vs. Expensive
The amazing NZ aerospace industry
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, industrial organisation
The Post reports: The Government has lifted a looming cap on rocket launches over New Zealand waters, in a move pitched as clearing the way for the country’s fast-growing space and advanced aviation industries. Space Minister Judith Collins and Environment Minister Penny Simmonds on Thursday confirmed the permitted number of launches that can drop rocket debris…
The amazing NZ aerospace industry
Epic Fury: Trump Can Rely on Past Democratic Presidents for the Authority to Attack Iran
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, International law, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: constitutional law
Below is my column on Fox.com on the legal authority for Operation Epic Fury. There are good-faith arguments that such…
Epic Fury: Trump Can Rely on Past Democratic Presidents for the Authority to Attack Iran
So much for being a refugee
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, Economics of international refugee law, law and economics, politics - New Zealand
The Herald reports: New Zealand citizen and Algerian political activist Ahmed Zaoui has been released from prison after more than two years behind bars. Zaoui was arrested at gunpoint in the city of Medea in 2023 for holding a political meeting at his home and commenting on the “political and human rights situation” in the country. He…
So much for being a refugee
Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism and Intellectuals
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of education, history of economic thought Tags: creative destruction
See Socialists, Knowledge of History and Agency. These are letters to the editor of The WSJ in response to an article about socialism by Joseph Epstein. The one below reminded me of a 1992 article by Robert Samuelson in Newsweek. “Joseph Epstein’s “Socialists Don’t Know History” (op-ed, May 30, 2019) on the abysmal historical knowledge…
Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism and Intellectuals
The Treaty – Drowning in a sea of misinformation in 2026
01 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights Tags: constitutional law, political correctness, racial discrimination, regressive left
I write this as a descendant of Henry Williams, who arrived here in 1823 as an ex Royal Navy officer and Head of the Church Missionary Society of New Zealand. He translated the Treaty of Waitangi into te reo Maori in 1840. The document he prepared with his eldest son Edward, on the evening of […]
The Treaty – Drowning in a sea of misinformation in 2026
LINDSAY MITCHELL: HOW THE SALLIES HAVE EVOLVED TO BECOME PART OF THE PROBLEM
28 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in discrimination, economics of crime, economics of education, labour economics, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, welfare reform Tags: Maori economic development, racial discrimination
The 2026 Salvation Army State of the Nation Report revealed their official conversion to wokeism by repeatedly finding excuses for Maori over-representation in poor social stats because of victimisation through colonisation. This caused a number of readers to ponder future contributions to the organisation. But it isn’t just this development that should concern donors. The…
LINDSAY MITCHELL: HOW THE SALLIES HAVE EVOLVED TO BECOME PART OF THE PROBLEM
It Has Become Cheaper to Lose Weight
28 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, health economics, industrial organisation Tags: creative destruction
Finding out that GLP-1 drugs can help reduce weight has been life changing for many and could stem the social costs of being overweight. Recently, prices have fallen dramatically. I asked ChatGPT to for some summary data for Wegovy & Zepbound which I plot below. Competition matters. Initially, Wegovy was the effective monopolist selling at a list price…
It Has Become Cheaper to Lose Weight
The abomination of Britain’s Gorton and Denton by-election
28 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in liberalism, Marxist economics, politics Tags: British politics, regressive left
The UK is having one of its regular by-elections, this time in Gorton and Denton, a constituency in Manchester. The constituency was new at the 2024 election, and at the time was won by Labour’s Andrew Gwynne with 50.8% of the vote, with Reform a distant second on 14.1%. Gwynne had been an MP for…
The abomination of Britain’s Gorton and Denton by-election
‘Disaster’! Climate groups slam Germany for scrapping renewable heating law
27 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of bureaucracy, economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, Public Choice, urban economics Tags: Germany
“Habeck’s heating hammer” set to bite the dust. Maybe net zero zealotry is not the complete answer to modern energy supply after all, despite what its supporters keep claiming. – – – A revision of an existing law will now allow homeowners to use oil and gas as heating fuel instead, says Euronews. Germany’s government […]
‘Disaster’! Climate groups slam Germany for scrapping renewable heating law
The Party Dominated Economy, Part 2
27 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, industrial organisation, politics - USA
The NY Times realizes that Trump is not a free market capitalist
The Party Dominated Economy, Part 2
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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