Huge differences that require explanation
28 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics
China fact (?) of the day
15 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth miracles, health economics, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China
A monograph by Yi Fuxian, a University of Wisconsin-Madison demographer and longtime critic of China’s population policies, argues that China’s actual population may be closer to 1.27 billion—not the 1.4 billion officially reported. The gap would be as much as 130 million people, roughly the population of Mexico. And Yi argues the distortion has warped…
China fact (?) of the day
The baby bust
30 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of love and marriage, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, population economics Tags: baby bust, economics of fertility
The Economics of a Shrinking World
27 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, population economics
From Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick: As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236…
The Economics of a Shrinking World
Is there a construal of “anti-Zionism” that doesn’t mean “antisemitism”?
03 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, population economics, war and peace Tags: Israel, Middle-East politics, regressive left, war against terror
I wrote about this issue before, and I still can’t find a construal of “anti-Zionism” that is not equivalent to “antisemitism”? I ask because people who throw the term anti-Zionist around, like Zohran Mamdani, adamantly deny that they mean “antisemitism.” So that makes it okay for them to tar people as “Zionists” and deny that…
Is there a construal of “anti-Zionism” that doesn’t mean “antisemitism”?
Disappointing
01 Sep 2026 1 Comment
in human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, population economics Tags: economics of immigration
The ACT Party has announced a new policy that would:Remove the existing Permanent Resident visa category;Require all Resident Visa holders to receive a 5 year travel facility, replacing the current two-year initial travel condition;Require all Resident Visa holders to be physically present in New Zealand for at least 730 days within any rolling five-year period,…
Disappointing
Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom
25 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in economic growth, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
The world’s most under-appreciated problem is demographic decline mixed with tax-and-transfer entitlement programs. Those two factors, when combined, are a massive problem. All of which is explained in my series on demographic change and fiscal crisis (see here, here, here, here, and here). Today, let’s focus on the problem in Europe, building on what I […]
Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom
College-educated women have maintained stable marriage rates by partnering with high-earning non-college men, shrinking the pool of economically viable partners available to non-college women
24 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of love and marriage, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, occupational choice, population economics, poverty and inequality
See Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Marriage Patterns by Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman & Joseph Winkelmann.”Over the past half-century, the gender composition of American college campuses has shifted from predominantly male to predominantly female. Today, 1.6 million more women than men attend four-year colleges in the US. Over the same time period, the economic status…
College-educated women have maintained stable marriage rates by partnering with high-earning non-college men, shrinking the pool of economically viable partners available to non-college women
The Confucian fertility paradox
21 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, population economics
Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal…
The Confucian fertility paradox
The population bust
05 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, population economics
Pronatal policies
21 Jul 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: economics of fertility
The Institute for Family Studies puts up a pro-natal proposal that I’d not seen before.Most of the literature I’ve seen on baby bonuses suggests that the amount on offer would have to be hefty to have substantive effects. This version could harness a bit of loss aversion:President Trump launched a small savings account seeded with…
Pronatal policies
Broadband coverage and rural fertility
18 Jul 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, labour economics, population economics Tags: economics of fertility
I recently expressed some scepticism at a paper showing that the release of the iPhone explained a third or more of the decline in US fertility. So, I was interested to read this new working paper by Gokhan Kumpas (California State University, Los Angeles), which looks at the effect of broadband coverage on fertility. Specifically, Kumpas…
Broadband coverage and rural fertility
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