The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract: China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex…
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
21 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, financial economics, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China
Does this have implications for higher ed in particular?
20 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of education, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, population economics
Declining fertility and population loss pose significant challenges for state and federal local governments responsible for providing a range of services to citizens, including education, health care, and infrastructure. Indeed, many areas are already experiencing outright population decline, with roughly half of U.S. counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. This paper examines how shrinking…
Does this have implications for higher ed in particular?
Does working from home raise lifetime fertility?
06 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of love and marriage, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: economics of fertility, economics of pandemics
See Work from Home and Fertility by Steven J. Davis, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate. Abstract”We investigate how fertility relates to work from home (WFH) in the post-pandemic era, drawing on original data from our Global Survey of Working Arrangements and U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements…
Does working from home raise lifetime fertility?
Paul Ehrlich
04 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in environmentalism, population economics
Paul Ehrlich has died, the environmentalist most well know for being wrong about basically everything. Richard Hanania has read Ehrlich’s infamous “The population bomb” and summarises for us what Ehrlich thought. Click through and read the whole series. It is amazing. The post Paul Ehrlich first appeared on Kiwiblog.
Paul Ehrlich
‘Ever-wrong Ehrlich’s’ Greatest Hits (er, misses)
18 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, environmentalism, growth disasters, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: pessimism bias, population bomb, population bust
His famous 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” changed the world. He famously predicted that human “overpopulation” would soon outstrip food supplies, leading to catastrophic famines, and societal collapse. He predicted that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the 1970s and 1980s, that India would be unable to feed its population by 1980, and…
‘Ever-wrong Ehrlich’s’ Greatest Hits (er, misses)
So much for the population bomb
25 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
Can fertility return to replacement levels?
23 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics
Many countries, including almost all developed countries and many developing countries, are now experiencing below-replacement fertility, with fertility rates having declined substantially over the past decade or more. That means that each generation will be progressively smaller than the last, and almost inevitably that leads to a declining population (in the absence of offsetting migration…
Can fertility return to replacement levels?
Some Snapshots of the US Demographic Future
13 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
Demography is the study of the structure of human populations, including factors like births, deaths, aging, as well as health and economic factors. Some demographic changes happen slowly, over decades, but in a predicable way. For example, if you want to look at projections for the year 2050 of the ratio of the US working-age…
Some Snapshots of the US Demographic Future
So much for overpopulation
02 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
Some Snapshots of Global Urbanization
26 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, population economics, urban economics
During the last half-century or so, one of the biggest changes in how humans live is the greater share of people around the world who live in cities. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs describes some pattern in its report on World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results (November 2025). The report defines…
Some Snapshots of Global Urbanization
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, urban economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
I have a five-part series (here, here, here, here, and here) explaining that demographic decline will lead to fiscal crisis. The main takeaway is that entitlement programs are a ticking time bomb, and I castigate politicians who want to kick the can down the road (or make a bad situation even worse). This is a global problem, not merely an American problem, as […]
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
I often get asked when the United States will suffer a Greek-style fiscal crisis. My answer is always “I don’t know,” though I freely admit we are heading in that direction. My lack of specificity isn’t merely because economists are lousy forecasters. I tell people it’s all about investor sentiment, and it’s hard to know […]
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
The population bust
02 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, China, population bust
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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