The American defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan are often compared as military and foreign-policy failures. But there is another comparison that matters at least as much: what happened to the people left behind after the Americans departed? If we put aside the destruction caused during the wars themselves and concentrate on their aftermaths, an important difference […]
After US Defeat: Vietnam and Afghanistan
After US Defeat: Vietnam and Afghanistan
04 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, industrial organisation, Marxist economics, war and peace Tags: Afghanistan, Vietnam
The Milei Miracle, Part V
02 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, growth disasters, growth miracles, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics Tags: Argentina
The world’s worst-performing economy for 100 years has – in a remarkably short period of time – become an amazing case study of economic liberalization. Thanks to President Javier Milei, Argentina is now enjoying an economic miracle. In Part V of this series (previous versions here, here, here, and here), we’re going to illustrate Milei’s […]
The Milei Miracle, Part V
Can Chile Once Again Become the Latin Tiger?
30 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth miracles, history of economic thought, macroeconomics Tags: Chile
In 2012, I wrote that pro-market reforms had turned Chile into the Latin Tiger. But two years later, in 2014, I wrote a column fretting that a recently elected left-leaning government was going to undermine prosperity. Based on the Maddison data, my concerns were justified. The country’s economic performance can be divided into three periods. […]
Can Chile Once Again Become the Latin Tiger?
The Confucian fertility paradox
21 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, population economics
Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal…
The Confucian fertility paradox
Further progress in South America
08 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: The Great Escape
The share of people who are hungry has been decreasing faster in South America than anywhere else in the world. It is down by one-third since 2020, according to a report published on July 21st by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Just 3.5% of people in the region consume insufficient calories, the lowest…
Further progress in South America
Missing women on Indian streets
09 Jul 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, discrimination, econometerics, economics of crime, gender, growth miracles, law and economics Tags: sex discrimination
How absent are women from city streets in the developing world? We answer this question using GPS-linked wearable cameras and randomized street audits across ~900 kilometers of roads in greater Mumbai. Across 4000+ street images containing 23,000+ visible person observations, women account for 16.4% of visible people in Mumbai and 14.7% in Navi Mumbai, far…
Missing women on Indian streets
Greg Ip Is Mistaken Again About U.S. Trade Deficits
15 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, growth miracles, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade
TweetHere’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal. Editor: Writing about U.S. trade deficits, Greg Ip declares that “by exporting so much, China effectively forces its trading partners to run deficits” (“The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances,” June 12). Wrong. U.S. trade deficits occur whenever foreigners sell more to us than they…
Greg Ip Is Mistaken Again About U.S. Trade Deficits
Blair Destroys Net Zero Policy
07 Jun 2026 1 Comment
in development economics, economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, growth miracles Tags: British politics, China, climate activists
By Paul Homewood Well worth a watch, as Tony Blair destroys Mad Miliband’s obsession with Net Zero: https://x.com/NetZeroWatch/status/2059927624537743869
Blair Destroys Net Zero Policy
The Case Against Socialism, Part V
24 May 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: North Korea, South Korea
As far as I know, Matt Mitchell and I are not related, but we both have a low opinion of socialism. He covers a lot of ground (defining socialism, the role of prices, socialism’s death toll, and the myth of Nordic socialism) in this 15-minute interview. Matt does such a good job that I didn’t […]
The Case Against Socialism, Part V
The Great Enrichment
12 May 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: The Great Enrichment
China Shock 2.0 vs. China Shock 1.0
04 May 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, growth miracles, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, survivor principle Tags: China, free trade
TweetThis post by Oxford economist J. Zachary Mazlish is very good; I encourage you to read it. (HT David Levey) Nevertheless, there are two points that I think to be worth making in response to Mazlish’s post. I will here make one of these points. I’ll make the other of these points in a follow-up…
China Shock 2.0 vs. China Shock 1.0
How Reform Happens
30 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, Public Choice
What determines whether and how regulations are reformed? We use a newly constructed data set of 3,590 successful and failed regulatory reforms in 189 countries, between 2005 and 2022, to address this question. We document that regulations have become more business friendly in some regulatory domains but not others. We also show that regulations are…
How Reform Happens
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
22 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, growth miracles
Part 1 of 2 on a damning new paper that takes on the top-down climate-economics literature — “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
21 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, financial economics, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China
The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract: China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex…
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
Wealth Is Not a Fixed Pie
27 Mar 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, behavioural economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles
One of the most destructive myths in economics is the zero-sum fallacy. Back in 2018, I shared a cartoon that sought to debunk the notion that one person getting richer meant another person had to be poorer. But I wasn’t satisfied with the cartoon, so I offered a modified version. But I still didn’t think […]
Wealth Is Not a Fixed Pie
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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