Economics has recently lost another of the greats, Nobel Prize-winning economist Edmund Phelps, who passed away last week. Phelps was a macroeconomist, and among his many contributions he helped to formalise the concept of the natural rate of unemployment. Phelps won the Nobel Prize in 2006 for “his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy”.Surprisingly,…
Edmund Phelps, 1933-2026
Edmund Phelps, 1933-2026
28 May 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment
Blame Washington for the Great Depression, Part III
27 May 2026 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics
To follow up on Part I and Part II in this series, let’s start with this Stossel video featuring Professor Don Boudreaux of George Mason University. The message is simple and accurate. Starting nearly 100 years ago, we got terrible statist policy from Herbert Hoover, followed by terrible statist policy from Franklin Roosevelt. No wonder […]
Blame Washington for the Great Depression, Part III
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
17 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, Edward Prescott, entrepreneurship, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, human capital, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, occupational choice, Robert E. Lucas
Tim Sablik of the Richmond Fed interviews “Ellen McGrattan: On measuring what businesses do, developing effective tax policy, and searching for answers beyond the lamppost” (Econ Focus: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, First/Second Quarter 2026). Here are a few of the comments that caught my eye: How did McGrattan become interested in business cycles? In…
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
11 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in Austrian economics, business cycles, economic history, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Murray Rothbard Tags: monetary policy
SummaryIn 1973, when the first edition of For a New Liberty was published, Keynesians were still sitting pretty. Five years later, the Keynesians had so much egg on their faces that Rothbard was inspired to add this entirely new chapter on “Inflation and the Business Cycle: The Collapse of the Keynesian Paradigm” to his revised…
Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
On the Great Recession
02 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetarism, unemployment
TweetPrager University’s new short video on the Great Recession was inspired by Chapter 5 of Phil Gramm’s and my 2025 book, The Triumph of Economic Freedom. The post On the Great Recession appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
On the Great Recession
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
27 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, growth disasters, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina
I’ve been participating in a conference in Argentina this week on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” Part I reviewed the horrible economic conditions that plagued Argentina when Javier Milei took office. Part II looked at Milei’s spending restraint and some of the subsequent improvements in fiscal outcomes. Part III examined Milei’s remarkable progress with regards to […]
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
Javier Milei Week, Part I: Inheriting an Economic Crisis
23 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: Argentina
Given my enthusiasm for Javier Milei and his libertarian reforms, I’m excited to be in Buenos Aires for a week-long program on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” This means a heavy does of Milei-ism this week. For today’s column, I’m going to share some slides from a presentation by Alejandro Rodriguez on the “Inheritance” Milei […]
Javier Milei Week, Part I: Inheriting an Economic Crisis
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When recessions hit, the US Federal Reserve lowers its target interest rate–the “federal funds interest rate.” This interest rate applies to extremely safe borrowing: essentially, to overnight borrowing by large and safe financial institutions. The idea is that by altering this ultra-safe interest rate, other riskier interest rates will also be under pressure to adjust,…
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
If Iran stopped exporting oil
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, defence economics, economic growth, energy economics, industrial organisation, international economics, International law, macroeconomics, resource economics, war and peace Tags: Iran
By ChatGPT-5.2 If Iran’s oil exports alone stopped, the world would feel it, but it would probably be a serious price shock rather than an immediate global supply collapse. Iran has recently been exporting roughly 1.1–1.5 million barrels a day, close to its 2025 average of about 1.69 million barrels a day, with China buying more than 80% of those shipped […]
If Iran stopped exporting oil
Reserve Bank sees sense
08 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
The Reserve Bank announced: “Following the completion of the review commissioned by the Board in March, we are pleased to announce modernised capital rules that will support an efficient and resilient financial system,” said Rodger Finlay, Chair of the RBNZ Board. “We recalibrated our risk appetite to have regard to our new Financial Policy Remit,…
Reserve Bank sees sense
Political pressure on the Fed
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
Some simple economics of AI and macro cycles
20 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic growth, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, macroeconomics
Has AI been propping up the American economy? For instance “the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s category for investment in information processing equipment and software accounts for over 90 percent of economic growth in the first half of 2025.” The key question is what would have been done with those resources otherwise. Regardless of their specific […]
Some simple economics of AI and macro cycles
My excellent Conversation with George Selgin
19 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and George discuss the surprising lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the New Deal, whether revaluing gold was really the best path to economic reflation, how much Glass-Steagall and other individual parts of the New Deal mattered, Keynes’ “very […]
My excellent Conversation with George Selgin
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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