Category Archives: financial economics

.@NZTreasury wined, dined GFC prophet @ProfSteveKeen: his Oz data predicted GFC but missed long boom @Chris_Auld @dandolfa

Post-Keynesian macroeconomists believe business cycle theory starts and finishes with recurrent private debt bubbles that lead to inevitable financial crashes because private investors repeatedly borrow more than they can pay back and never learn.

minsky-moment-768x512

Bold, risky science in the finest tradition of Karl Popper. Keen strictly forbids a recession not following a build up of private debt. His theory is to bareboned to have a protective belt of auxiliary hypotheses that save him from refutation.

Post-Keynesians identified a great business opportunity shorting these recurrent debt bubbles but must crowd source further development of the Minsky Software that successfully predicted the GFC.

Top hedge fund managers earn at least $400 million a year so they could easily spare a few million dollars over lunch on the off chance that there is something in Post-Keynesian macroeconomics and the Minsky software.

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Predicting the GFC, Karl Popper & the lure of prophecy

From https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/popper/ and https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=zXh9AwAAQBAJ&pg=PA455&dq=karl+popper+Conjectures+Refutations+%22the+dream+of+prophecy%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiczvqg3uPdAhVDQd4KHRD8CPQQ6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q=karl%20popper%20Conjectures%20Refutations%20%22the%20dream%20of%20prophecy%22&f=false