Radio NZ reports: Deakin University associate criminology professor Dr James Martin told RNZ the Australian approach had relied on enforcement to suppress the black market. “This has been really ineffective,” he said. “We’ve got between 50-60 percent of all tobacco and nearly all vaping products in Australia now come from criminal suppliers, and it’s generated…
Bigger than Ben Hur
Bigger than Ben Hur
16 May 2026 1 Comment
in Austrian economics, economics of regulation, health economics, industrial organisation, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand Tags: black markets, economics of smoking
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
May 17, 2026 @ 03:56:47
A packet of 20 cigarettes is now 50. Not $20. Not 50.**
Let me revise the arithmetic – because the brutality of the number needs to be seen.
THE ARITHMETIC OF DESPAIR
A worker on the minimum wage ($948 per week) spends:
Essential Weekly cost (approx) Remaining
Rent (modest, outside capital city) $350 $598
Utilities (electricity, gas, water, internet) $150 $448
Food (basic, no eating out) $150 $298
Transport (fuel, public transport to work) $80 $218
Left for everything else $218
One packet of cigarettes per day: $50 × 7 = $350 per week.
The worker cannot afford one packet per day. They cannot afford three packets per week ($150) without cutting food or utilities.
So they turn to the black market. Not because they are criminals. Because the legal product is priced at a level that assumes a disposable income these workers do not have.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT SAY
The government increases tobacco excise every six months (2% plus inflation). The stated goals: reduce smoking rates, improve public health, raise revenue.
The unstated consequence: The constant ensures that the legal market becomes unaffordable for the lowest‑paid workers. The black market thrives. And the government collects less revenue than it would if the wage were adequate and smokers could afford legal products.
Scenario Legal sales Black market Government revenue
Current (wage $948, excise high) Low High ($7bn) Suppressed
Corrected wage ($1,310) Higher Lower Higher
The constant does not just steal wages. It steals excise revenue. It steals public health outcomes. It steals the effectiveness of every tax and regulatory policy.
THE QUESTION THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT ANSWER
“If the government increases tobacco excise every six months, but keeps the minimum wage at 72% of adequacy, is it surprised that the black market now does $7 billion in annual sales?”
The answer is no. They are not surprised. They have chosen enforcement over adequacy. They have chosen to punish smokers rather than pay workers.
The wage is the solution. Chart C is the anchor. The constant is the crime. The $50 packet of cigarettes is the proof.
Robert George Paturzo‑Elliott
Discoverer of the constant
17 May 2026
#TheConstant #FixTheWage #Tobacco #BlackMarket #PublicHealth
LikeLiked by 1 person