Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
25 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in economic growth, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
The world’s most under-appreciated problem is demographic decline mixed with tax-and-transfer entitlement programs. Those two factors, when combined, are a massive problem. All of which is explained in my series on demographic change and fiscal crisis (see here, here, here, here, and here). Today, let’s focus on the problem in Europe, building on what I […]
Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom
10 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
09 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society, economics of immigration, population bust
Lyric Waiwiri-Smith at The Spinoff asked me what I thought the options might be for dealing with rising superannuation costs. Her story’s here, along with comment from Max Rashbrooke and Shamubeel Eaqub. My most-preferred option is ongoing increases in immigration rates, coupled with shifting to CPI-indexation of super benefits and indexing the age of eligibility to healthy…
Superannuation affordability options
07 May 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of love and marriage, gender, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
06 May 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: ageing society
The Herald reports: Labour leader Chris Hipkins says he is open to discussing whether New Zealand’s superannuation should be means-tested. Hipkins told Newstalk ZB’s Kerre Woodham he would not want full means-testing of the country’s pension but added “there are questions”. “I don’t want to do this on a unilateral basis, I think these need to…
Chippie is brave and right
25 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
13 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
Demography is the study of the structure of human populations, including factors like births, deaths, aging, as well as health and economic factors. Some demographic changes happen slowly, over decades, but in a predicable way. For example, if you want to look at projections for the year 2050 of the ratio of the US working-age…
Some Snapshots of the US Demographic Future
02 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
16 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
If you want to know why I’m pessimistic about Europe (particularly compared to the U.S.), this chart is a good example. It shows that many European nations have enormous long-run liabilities for their Social Security systems. It’s an understatement to observe that Spain, Austria, and Italy have very grim fiscal futures. Keep in mind that […]
Europe’s Grim Fiscal Future
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, urban economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
I have a five-part series (here, here, here, here, and here) explaining that demographic decline will lead to fiscal crisis. The main takeaway is that entitlement programs are a ticking time bomb, and I castigate politicians who want to kick the can down the road (or make a bad situation even worse). This is a global problem, not merely an American problem, as […]
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
09 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society, Germany
A lot has happened if you look at the past 100 years of German economic policy. Hyperinflation leading to Hitler’s National Socialists taking power. An impressive free-market revival after World War II. A growing welfare state after the imposition of a value-added tax in the 1960s. Some semi-impressive spending restraint starting in the mid-1990s. Very […]
Germany’s Accelerating Fiscal and Economic Decline
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
I often get asked when the United States will suffer a Greek-style fiscal crisis. My answer is always “I don’t know,” though I freely admit we are heading in that direction. My lack of specificity isn’t merely because economists are lousy forecasters. I tell people it’s all about investor sentiment, and it’s hard to know […]
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
02 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, China, population bust
09 Sep 2025 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, economics of fertility, population bust
07 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in income redistribution, labour economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society
A guest post by Michael Littlewood: As New Zealand’s population ages and, in particular, as the proportion of over-65s increases, the cost of New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) is rising. We know that and it doesn’t help us understand the issues to create headlines that catastrophise the expected costs. The pensions payable in the future, public […]
GUEST POST: On the long-term costs of New Zealand Superannuation: more affordable now?
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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