Academics and their bias against the market

The expansion of jobs for graduates from the 1960s onwards increased the choices for well-educated people more disposed to the market of working outside the teaching profession. Those left behind in academia were even more of the Leftist persuasion than earlier in the 20th century.

Dan Klein showed that in the hard sciences, there were 159 Democrats and 16 Republicans at UC-Berkley. Similar at Stanford. No registered Republicans in the sociology department and one each in the history and music departments. For UC-Berkeley, an overall Democrat:Republican ratio of 9.9:1. For Stanford, an overall D:R ratio of 7.6:1. Registered Democrats easily outnumber registered Republicans in most economics departments in the USA. The registered Democrat to Republican ratio in sociology departments is 44:1! For the humanities overall, only 10 to 1.

The left-wing bias of universities is no surprise, given Hayek’s 1948 analysis of intellectuals in light of opportunities available to people of varying talents:

  • exceptionally intelligent people who favour the market tend to find opportunities for professional and financial success outside the universities in the business or professional world; and
  • those who are highly intelligent but more ill-disposed toward the market are more likely to choose an academic career.

People are guided into different occupations based on their net agreeableness and disagreeableness including any personal distaste that they might have for different jobs and careers. There is growing evidence of the role of personality traits in occupational choice and career success.

The theories of occupational choice, compensating differentials and the division of labour suggest plenty of market opportunities both for caring people and for the more selfish rest of us:

  • Personalities with a high degree of openness are strongly over-represented in creative, theoretical fields such as writing, the arts, and pure science, and under-represented in practical, detail-oriented fields such as business, police work and manual labour.
  • High extraversion is over-represented in people-oriented fields like sales and business and under-represented in fields such as accounting and library work.
  • High agreeableness is over-represented in caring fields like teaching, nursing, religion and counselling, and under-represented in pure science, engineering and law.

Schumpeter explained in Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy that it is “the absence of direct responsibility for practical affairs” that distinguishes the academic intellectual from others “who wield the power of the spoken and the written word.”

Schumpeter and Robert Nozick argued that intellectuals were bitter that the skills so well-rewarded at school and at university with top grades were less well-rewarded in the market.

  • For Nozick, the intellectual wants the whole society to be a school writ large, to be like the environment where he or she did so well and was so well appreciated.
  • For Schumpeter, the intellectual’s main chance of asserting himself lies in his actual or potential nuisance value.

Richard Posner also had little time for academics who say they speak truth to power:

  • The individuals who do so do it with the quality of a risk-free lark.
  • Academics, far from being marginalized outsiders, are insiders with the security of well-paid jobs from which they can be fired with difficulty.
  • Academics flatter themselves that they are lonely, independent seekers of truth, living at the edge.
  • Most academics take no risks in expressing conventional left-leaning (or politically correct) views to the public, which is part of the reason they are not regarded with much seriousness by the general public.

Why are there so few workers’ co-ops?

If workers’ cooperatives are so efficient, why are there so few cooperatives? Workers’ cooperatives should be able to slowly undercut other firms on price because they do not have to pay a profit to the capitalists.

Building societies, credit unions and some life insurance companies were mutually owned by their customers for a long time, but recently fell out of favour because of a growing lack of competitiveness and under-capitalisation.

Cooperatives are not economically viable because of intrinsic difficulties of entrepreneurship and management. And most workers prefer to work in firms for a wage rather than wait for the co-op to start up and hopefully break even before they get their first pay cheque. That could be a slow train coming.

The kibbutzim are Israeli agricultural communities initially organized on socialist lines, mostly between the 1910s and 1950s. The kibbutz is an example of voluntary socialism. The founders of kibbutzim were socialist idealists wanting to create a new human being.

Robert Nozick pointed out that few people actually join a kibbutz. Six per cent is the maximum proportion of any population who would voluntarily choose to live in these socialist communities. More recently, 2.6% of the Israeli population live on a kibbutz.

Originally, most kibbutzim followed strict socialist policies forbidding private property; they also required near-total equality of income regardless of differences in productivity, and in some cases, even abandoned the specialisation of labour. Kibbutzim are communities whose aim is equal sharing.

Kibbutzim were expected to fail because of moral hazard and adverse selection. Other organisations subject to adverse selection and moral hazard are professional partnerships, co-operatives, and labour-managed firms because they are all based on revenue sharing.

Kibbutzim have persisted for most of the twentieth century and are one of the largest communal movements in history. About 40% are still run on communist principles. Why is this so?

The kibbutz movement was founded by individuals who can be regarded as ex-ante homogeneous in their ability and potential income, and who came to a new land full of uncertainties. They were young unattached individuals who share a comparatively long period of social, ideological, and vocational training.

An even more durable example of voluntary collectivist living is Catholic monasteries and convents, but notice that these too were founded on a realization that close family ties are inimical to communal order.

Kibbutz founders wanted insurance, but their founders realised that members who would turn out to have high abilities might leave the Kibbutz.

  • The founders of the kibbutzim decided to abolish all private property and to own all wealth commonly, which served as a lock-in device.
  • Like monasteries and convents, kibbutzim deter members from fleeing through this communal ownership of property. You leave with the shirt on your back!

Kibbutzim also put prospective members through lengthy trial periods to make sure they are made of the right stuff. Those raised on a kibbutz tend to have learned kibbutz-specific skills, such as agronomy, which also makes exit to the outside world even more difficult.

Kibbutzim are similar to law firms, medical and business partnerships that pool income for risk sharing purposes.

Mutual monitoring and peer pressure replace direct monetary incentives in mitigating moral hazard in a kibbutz (and in monasteries and convents) in the same way as in professional partnerships, cooperatives, and labour-managed firms with pooled assets and the option of exit.

The trade-off between insurance and adverse selection determines the level of equality within a kibbutz and its size, as with any other professional partnership:

  • Kibbutz vary in size from less than a hundred to over a thousand, but most have between 400 and 600 members, with an average of 441 members.
  • Kibbutz size is limited by the savings on income insurance no longer offsetting the costs of moral hazard and other transaction costs as the Coasian firm grows in size.

Ran Abramitzky writes with great insight on the economics of the kibbutzim. He is writing a book The Mystery of the Kibbutz: How Socialism Succeeded. He found that high-ability individuals are more likely to leave a kibbutz. The brain drain would be worse if kibbutzim didn’t make it so costly to exit. Is this a familiar theme of socialism?

Many hybrid organisations exist in the market, ranging from joint ventures and agricultural seller and supermarket buyer co-ops to labour-owned firms such as in most of the professions.

But rarely do we find real life existing cooperatives with all workers and only workers having equal ownership rights. As Jon Elster noted, there are often non-working owners, non-owning workers and unequal distribution of shares in real life workers’ co-ops. All other types of co-ops and professional partnership share this feature.

Terry, Arthur and Maggie Thatcher

Some are one-eyed enough to look upon pre-Thatcher Britain fondly – good jobs and more equality. Watching re-runs of The Minder, I do not see Terry and Arthur, after a hard day of ducking, diving and ‘strictly cash only’ operations, sitting at the bar of the Winchester Club with Dave talking about how they never had it so good.

British TV of the 1970s was gritty. The Sweeney is another example, reflecting the economic stagnation of that time.

The Minder was a slow starter in the ratings, not helped by delay from a 9-week technicians’ strike which blacked out the ITV network. It was almost cancelled after one season.

The 25% annual CPI inflation, the productivity slowdown, the three-day week, and the 1978 winter of discontent earned the U.K. in those good old days of good jobs and more equality the moniker ‘the sick man of Europe’.

During the 1960s and 1970s, the main parties competed to reverse Britain’s relative economic decline. There was a growing awareness that the economic league tables showed that Britain was at the wrong end for figures regarding strikes, productivity, inflation, economic growth and rising living standards.

Virtually all European countries, except Britain, had so-called ‘economic miracles’. The targets for blame included: failure to invest in new plant and machinery, restrictive working practices and outdated attitudes on the shop floor (‘us and them’), amateurish management, loss of markets, and rise of competition.

Some believe, as surely as night follows day, that life got worse under Thatcher

“The 70s was Britain’s most equal decade. The jobs that went during the 80s tended to be good, skilled jobs, delivering decent incomes and some security. She failed to replace those jobs with well-paid equivalents. Demonising unions and stripping the great mass of private-sector workers of a voice and power in the workplace is still the root of the great living standards crisis that saw the share of wealth going to wages slide long before Lehman Brothers failed.”

My high school economics teacher took us on a tour of a carpet factory. The boredom in the eyes of those workers motivated me big time to go to university.

Some members of the educated middle-class forget what a factory job was like in the 1970s. Dangerous too were those good jobs of the 1970s. One reason for low-paid jobs paying a little less now is they are safer and less boring.

What would a socialist Britain look like today – again the Guardian backcasting to a decade of nationalisations, nuclear disarmament and state-run pubs:

Perhaps we would be waiting six months for a mobile telephone, and paying the bills to the post office, headed by the Postmaster General – I don’t believe it would be a very advanced telephone, either. Perhaps there would be three TV channels and the requirement for a licence before you could use the internet.

Thatcher won office and stayed in office for so long because the previous arrangements were not working and there had to be a better way. UK Labour spent 17 years in the political wilderness because its ideas failed Britain in the 1970s. As the Minder progressed, the series reflected the improving British economy and Arthur becoming CEO of Daley into Europe Ltd.

Due deference to experts in public policy making

I caught Sir Paul Nurse’s Attack on Science on cable recently. He was exploring why people were unwilling to accept the word of science.

Sir Paul believes that people should defer to experts. He named two expert consensuses: global warming and GMOs.

In his 2012 Dimbleby Lecture Sir Paul called for a re-opening of the debate about GM crops based on scientific facts and analysis:

“We need to consider what the science has to say about risks and benefits, uncoloured by commercial interests and ideological opinion.

It is not acceptable if we deny the world’s poorest access to ways that could help their food security, if that denial is based on fashion and ill-informed opinion rather than good science.”

Many activists, without blinking an eye, will reject the science of GMOs but will hound from the temple anyone who defies another consensus they agree with.

Sir Paul interviewed James Delingpole. After they agreed that science does not proceed on the basis of consensus, Sir Paul asked Delingpole why he rejected the scientific consensus on global warming but accepted the scientific consensus on cancer.

Delingpole said he did not accept the analogy, but he was otherwise flat-footed. I suggest the following answer:

  1. Medicine proceeds on the basis of double blind trials and other small field experiments. Control and treatment groups are used before any treatment is applied widely. Medicine is not perfect as was the case with the misdiagnosis of the causes of stomach ulcers.
  1. The lag between cause and effect are short as would be the case if you rejected emergency treatment after a car accident or cancer treatment.
  1. Medicine tests the efficacy of invasive treatments, weighs side-effects and encourages adaptation and prevention.
  1. The staying power of self-interest in medicine is well-known: much higher rates of surgery when there is fee for service and much lower rates of surgery if the patient is a doctor’s wife. The efforts of the medical profession to suppress new entry to inflate their own incomes are well-known.

Ken Arrow in the early 1960s famously concluded that virtually all the special features of the medical care industry could “be explained as social adaptations to the existence of uncertainty in the incidence of disease and in the efficacy of treatment”.

  1. Physicians may not agree on the medical condition causing the symptoms the patient presents.
  2. Even if physicians agree on their diagnoses, they often do not agree on the efficacy of alternative responses — for example, surgery or medical management for lower-back pain.
  3. Third, information on diagnosis and likely consequences of treatment are asymmetrically allocated between providers and patients.
  4. The reason patients seek advice and treatment in the first place is that they expect physicians to have vastly superior knowledge about the proper diagnosis and efficacy of treatment.

Like all experts, doctors can advise you of the options open to you.

You must weigh those options in light of the costs and benefits to you and those costs and benefits are known only to you.

An old mate, who was in his thirties, had to consider back surgery that had a 10% chance of leaving him in a wheelchair for life. Experts cannot tell you what to do with those odds. After months of terrible pain and incapacity, his back slowly recovered without the surgery.

Most of the debate over global warming is explained by uncertainty about both the extent and incidence of global warming and the efficacy of prevention versus adaptation.

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