The union wage premium is supposed to be 10-15%. There is evidence that it may be close to zero and has been close to zero for some time at least in the USA.
In this paper (QJE 2004), John DiNardo and David Lee compared business establishments from 1984 to 1999 where US unions barely won the union certification election (e. g., by one vote) with workplaces where the unions barely lost.
If 50% plus 1 workers vote in favour of the union proposing to organise them, management has to bargain for a collective agreement in good faith with the certified union, if the union loses, management can ignore that union.
Most winning union certification elections resulted in the signing of a collective agreement not long after. Unions who barely win have as good a chance of securing a collective agreement as those unions that win these elections by wide margins. Few firms subsequently bargained with a union that just lost the certification election. Employers can choose to recognise a union.
Because the vote is so close, a particular workplace becoming unionised was close to a random event.
- This closeness of the union certification election may disentangle unionisation from just being coincident with well-paid workplaces, more skilled workers and well-paid industries.
- Unions could be organising at highly profitable firms that are more likely to grow and pay higher wages independent of any collective bargaining. The unions are claiming credit for wage rises that would have happened anyway.
DiNardo and Lee found only small impacts of unionisation on all outcomes that they examined:
- The estimated changes for wages are close to zero.
- Impacts on survival rates of the unionised business and their profitability were equally tiny.
- This evidence suggests that in recent decades, requiring an employer to bargain with a certified union has had little impact because unions have been unsuccessful in winning significant wage gains.
This means that there may not be a union wage premium at all since the early 1980s in the USA.
Private sector union membership is about 7% in the USA. Private sector union membership is barely in the teens in Australia and New Zealand. Fewer people are joining unions because they are not of any value to them.
The transferability of these results to Australia are in doubt, to the extent that there is the option for compulsory arbitration, which there is. The union wage premium may be the product of the ability to lobby for wage regulation.
New Zealand and U.S. unions are more similar in that both are on their own in bargaining with employers for a wage rise. The U.S. result sends a message to New Zealand that unions are a bit of a relic in terms of wage bargaining.
Regulated industries are a little different because it is wise for employers to share the rents from the higher prices with their employees as higher wages. They then unite in a political coalition to support continued regulation and tariffs. There are far fewer industries these days where entry is regulated and prices are higher because of such anti-competitive regulation.
These results about the small size of the union wage premium, of course, would come as no surprise to Milton Friedman. He said in 1950 that most unions could not overcome market forces that would tend to keep wages aligned with competitive rates.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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