Proponents of a class of models which promised 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 per cent unemployment to a society willing to tolerate annual inflation rates of 4 to 5 per cent have some explaining to do after a decade such as we have gone through [i.e., the 1970s, when inflation rose to 16 per cent and unemployment to 8 per cent in the United States, and to 30 per cent and 6 per cent in the U.K. Inflation rose as high as 25 per cent in Japan and 7 per cent in Germany, though unemployment remained relatively low].
A forecast error of this magnitude and central importance to policy has consequences, as well it should.

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