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Sam Peltzman likes to point out the road fatalities in the USA fell pretty much at a steady rate of 3% for the entire 20th century. There was no break in trend with the drop in fatalities after major road safety legislation was passed by Congress in 1966.
The composition of who died changed: Peltzman found fewer drivers and passengers died but the more pedestrians were killed because drivers drove faster and with less care. Alma Cohen and Linan Einav (2003) found that seat-belt laws, in the absence of any behavioural response, were expected to save three times as many lives as were in fact saved. This shortfall because of greater risk taking is the Peltzman effect:
the hypothesized tendency of people to react to a safety regulation by increasing other risky behaviour, offsetting some or all of the benefit of the regulation.
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