
In the 19th century, John Stuart Mill commented on the rapidity of economic recovery from national disasters and wars. He recognized that nations recover quickly as long as they retain their knowledge and skills, the prime engines of economic growth.
America retains its vast supply of both, which suggests that, contrary to fears, the Sept. 11 attacks are unlikely to worsen the medium- to long-term economic outlook.
The effects of the earthquake that hit the Japanese city of Kobe in 1995 illustrate Mill’s conclusion. This quake destroyed more than 100,000 buildings, badly damaged many others, and left hundreds of thousands homeless. Over 6,000 people died. Estimates place the total loss at about $114 billion (more than 2% of Japanese GDP at the time). Yet it took only a little over a year before GDP in the Kobe region returned to near pre-quake levels.
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