Bruce Riedel who ran President Obama’s AfPak review now favors containment over engagement with Pakistan as I mentioned in Part 1. He thinks military aid should be reduced sharply and substituted with reduced tariffs and the like. How is the Pakistani army going to respond? In the past, scientist A Q Khan sold nuclear secrets to countries that are hostile to the United States. Was the Pakistani Army complicit in the nuclear trade? That information is not in the public domain.
What is to stop the Pakistani Army employing or reverting to nuclear trade under containment? Again, thinking of the United States as the Principal and the Pakistani Army as the Agent, the principal has to come up with some way to give incentives to the agent. With commitment, the obvious instrument is a threat, e.g. the United States will attack/invade Pakistan if they observe a sign of nuclear trade…
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