Very recently John Fernald of the SF Fed released a quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) in the US. One of the neat things about his series is that you can look separately at investment (equipment and consumer durables) and consumption (everything else). When you plot these out, you see a really big divergence.

(Note: My graph from Fernald’sdata).
Consumption TFP essentially flat-lines from about 1980 until today. At the same time, investment TFP races ahead. Aggregate TFP is a weighted average of the two, and since investment is only about 20% of total spending, this means aggregate TFP exhibits a slight rise (Each series is normalized to 100 in 1947, so you cannot compare absolute levels across sectors like this).
The flat-line in consumption TFP has generated a few puzzled reactions. David Beckworth in particular said that the consumption series “does not pass…
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