Global warming – where there is and is not a consensus to deny | Ordinary Times

The motte for climate change activists are the following:

  • Global temperatures are rising.
  • Greenhouse gases lead to increased temperatures.
  • Greenhouse gases emitted by humans have led to measurable increases in temperature beyond what would have occurred without any humans.

The above points are highly defensible because Science. I believe they are true (though I do so only via trust in others rather than having evaluated any of the research involved personally).

Activists, however, do not sit in this motte for long. They often go on to make a lot of other claims in the bailey:

  • Long-term projections of the Earth’s climate are accurate.
  • Catastrophe will result in a few decades due to human carbon emissions.
  • Nuclear energy is not a viable alternative to fossil fuels.
  • Carbon capture is not viable.
  • Geoengineering is not viable.
  • Unilateral subsidization of renewables by Western industrialized nations is an effective way to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.
  • Subsidies of energy-efficient products are a better use of resources rather than research and development.
  • Subsidizing vehicles that pollute less than other vehicles will provide a net reduction in greenhouse emissions.
  • LEED-certified buildings are more energy-efficient than old buildings.
  • Building new LEED-certified buildings reduces net greenhouse emissions relative to not building them.
  • Sending oil by railcar will result in less net emissions than sending oil through a pipeline (e.g. the Keystone pipeline).

Not all activists make all of these claims, but I think most make at least some claims that are less defensible than those in the motte.

The end result is that anyone who opposes any of the views, even questionable ones sitting in the bailey, can be branded an anti-science denialist. Strictly speaking, this is unfair since there certainly isn’t a scientific consensus on questions like whether it makes sense to spend thousands of dollars subsidizing Chevy Volts while taxing bicycles and safety helmets at 8%.

via An Example of the Motte and Bailey Doctrine | Ordinary Times.

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