Excellent roundup of the forecasting errors of the hard sciences
By Tom Stohlgren and Dan Binkley
The future is really hard to predict. Really. In fact, 95% of Americans think they can predict the future 90% better than they really can! We just made up those statistics, but that’s what we often do when predicting the future – we take our best personal insights, observations, data, and models, and pretend we can see the future.
We just made up those statistics, but that’s what we often do when predicting the future – we take our best personal insights, observations, data, and models, and pretend we can see the future.
It’s a bit humbling, humorous, and humiliating, to consider some of the fantastic claims by well-intentioned scientists on the first Earth Day in 1970: 100-200 million people dying of starvation each year, a massive global cooling trend, and an end to life as we know it by 1985 (Ronald Reagan’s…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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