Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs anywhere between $0.13 and $0.23/kWh today, well below retail price of electricity in many markets globally.
The economics of solar have improved significantly due to the reduction in solar panel costs, financing costs and balance of system costs. We expect solar system costs to decrease 5-15% annually over the next 3+ years which could result in grid parity within ~50% of the target markets.
If global electricity prices were to increase at 3% per year and cost reduction occurred at 5-15% CAGR, solar would achieve grid parity in an additional ~30% of target markets globally. We believe the cumulative incremental total available market for solar is currently around ~140GW/year and could potentially increase to ~260GW/year over the next 5 years as solar achieves grid parity in more markets globally and electric capacity needs increase…
solar system costs have declined at ~15% CAGR over the past 8 years and we expect 40% cost reduction over the next 4-5 years as a solar module costs continue to decline, panel efficiencies gradually improve, balance of system costs decline due to scale and competition, global financing costs decline due to development of new business models and customer acquisition costs decline as a result of increasing customer awareness and more seamless technology adoption enabled by storage solutions…
oil represents only about 5% of global electricity production and in some of the important solar markets such as US, China, oil based electricity generation is less than 5% of the total. Moreover, the cost of oil based electricity generation even at $50 oil prices is the 7-9c/kWh range and as shown in the note, the marginal cost is higher than solar in many regions worldwide. Bottom line is that oil prices do not have a material impact on solar demand.
About the only losers from this creative destruction in energy production, aside from the tens of thousands of public officials, academics and NGO employees who jobs and research grants depend up climate alarmism, are the birds that happen to fly past these solar power stations and are incinerated.
via Deutsche Bank’s 2015 solar outlook: accelerating investment and cost competitiveness – Deutsche Bank Responsibility and Deutsche Bank report: Solar grid parity in a low oil price era – Deutsche Bank Responsibility.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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