
the results reflect a consolidation within the right wing of Israeli politics rather than a decisive swing to the right. The increase in the right’s vote share can be readily explained by a shift of voters from the hawkish religious parties (ultra-Orthodox and religious Zionists). There is little reason to believe that there is significant overlap between the constituencies of these religious-right parties and those of either the left or Arab parties.
It is reasonable to assume however that voters from these religious parties migrated to the Likud rather than other parties. This shift would account for 87 percent of the rise in the vote share by the right bloc. The relatively small remainder likely came from the center parties, which also lost support.
Notably, when centrist voters shifted to vote for another bloc, they largely turned to the left parties rather than to the Likud. The increased vote share of the left is especially significant given the rise in the vote share of the Arab parties which, while likely largely a result of increased turnout relative to 2013, also cost the left votes.
via Why Netanyahu’s win isn’t that dramatic – The Washington Post.
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