One theme of this blog has been the failure of the predictions made by expert climate scientists, together with the failure to acknowledge or investigate this failure.
Last night we had another very interesting example of expert predictions failing. With all the results now in, we know that the Conservatives have 331 seats, and Labour 232.
How does this compare with the various predictions made just before the vote?
| Con | Lab | Con – Lab | |
| Final Result | 331 | 232 | 99 | YouGov (Peter Kellner) | 284 | 263 | 21 |
| Bookies (oddschecker) | 287 | 267 | 20 |
| Nate Silver (538) | 278 | 267 | 11 |
| Guardian | 273 | 273 | |
| British Election Study | 274 | 278 | – 4 |
I’ve listed here some of the predictions made yesterday, in decreasing order of accuracy (Con-Lab difference). The “Bookies” row comes from Oddschecker, which lists odds provided by 20 or so bookies in a neat Table form (currently showing, for example, the options for next…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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