If Colin Craig is deposed tomorrow as the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand, his party will fall apart and run as a rump at the next election. The tables below discuss what might happen to the party vote that drifts back to the major parties with the collapse of the Conservative Party.
Table 1: 2014 general election status quo
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Green Party | 10.70% | 14 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 11.57% | |
| Labour Party | 25.13% | 32 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 26.45% | |
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.65% | |
| National Party | 47.04% | 60 | 41 | 19 | 60 | 49.59% | |
| New Zealand First Party | 8.66% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.09% | |
| United Future | 0.22% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | * | 0.83% |
| Totals | 93.76% | 120 | 71 | 50 | 121 | 100.00% |
As the table 2 below shows, if about 2% of the party vote of the Conservative party drifts back to National, and 2/10th of a percentage point of that party vote of the Conservative Party going to United Future, the National Party not only wins a majority in Parliament, the overhang in Parliament disappears as well. The United Future Party seat comes off the representation of the Labour Party if its party vote exceeds 0.4%. There are no other changes of note.
Table 2: 2014 general election with Conservative party rump
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | % of MPs | |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.89% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Green Party | 10.70% | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 10.83% | |
| Labour Party | 25.43% | 31 | 27 | 4 | 31 | 25.83% | |
| Māori Party | 1.32% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.67% | |
| National Party | 49.07% | 61 | 41 | 20 | 61 | 50.83% | |
| New Zealand First Party | 9.16% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9.17% | |
| United Future | 0.42% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.83% | |
| Totals | 96.99% | 120 | 71 | 49 | 120 | 100.00% |
The National Party almost won a majority in the last election so only a small amount of the Conservative Party’s party vote drifting back to it more so than the other parties can boost it to 61 votes and an absolute majority in its own right. Tomorrow is a big day for the future of New Zealand politics and the chances of the Left winning government any time soon.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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