If you have a flood and a fire, you could have zero problems rather than two

Eric Crampton's avatarThe Sand Pit

Suppose that Labour is right that there is a flood of Chinese investment currently driving up Auckland house prices, and suppose further that some of the economic commentary is right that this could just be the start of it.

We know there’s a housing shortage, and not just from price data. Overcrowding is pretty common. And it isn’t because of empty houses owned by foreign investors – if that’s happening at all, it’s at such trivial levels as to not be worth worrying about. Census data shows a decrease in the proportion of unoccupied houses from 2006 to 2013 in Auckland, not an increase. And Auckland’s rate of unoccupied housing is lower than other cities’ rates.

Suppose that you had a river in flood. Downstream from a dam, a house is on fire. The dam diverts the water over a pile of farmland and away from the house. If…

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