Robert Tetlow has published a fascinating research paper in the International Journal of Central Banking on policy robustness with the Fed’s FRB/US model. Perhaps the most important part of the paper is his careful documentation of the enormous shifts in the coefficients and the equations of FRB/US over time. This chart from the paper illustrates these shifts. The solid black line plots changes in the estimated sacrifice ratio of unemployment to changes in inflation implied by the model over 64 vintages.
Given these large shifts in the model it is not surprising that monetary policy rules calculated with the model shift over time. This is why robustness studies are so important.
A typical robustness study looks at different models. It takes policy rules that work well in one model and tries them out in other models. If the rules also work well in other models, then the rules are considered…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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