It was not so long ago that the Canadian election looked like it was going to produce a close three-way result. However, the NDP–which led as recently mid-September–has now fallen to a very distinctly third-place position. Just like that old Canadian party system, we might say. Moreover, the Liberals have been steadily gaining. See Eric Grenier’s poll-tracker at CBC.
Assuming there is not some late change in trends, it seems the main thing we now have to ask is whether the NDP will further bleed support such that there is a majority Liberal government. Or are we looking at a minority? Just recently, the seat projection (same page as the prior link) has finally nudged the Liberal Party within striking distance of majority territory, and the Conservatives out of it, unless they have their best possible result (“possible” under the terms of the poll-aggregating and seat-projection tools Grenier uses).
If…
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