If polls are to believed, the Liberals may be eating into soft Conservative vote in today’s Canadian election.
The conventional wisdom always was that the Tories could be defeated only by coordination or strategic voting between Liberals and NDP. Yet the NDP vote has been holding quite steady recently, while Liberals have taken the lead.
I never believed the coordination expectation (except in its weaker forms, which we may have seen happening in late Sept as the NDP slowly slid in polls). It seems we may have to score one for the old median-voter theorem, if in fact soft Tory voters are putting the Liberals within striking position of a parliamentary majority.
If so, chalk one up to Downs, and one against Duverger. By Downsian expectations, the winner of a two-party contest is the party that is closest to the median, and clearly it has come down to a contest…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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