The lab is Japan and Noah Smith has an article on it. There is a suggestion to launch fourth arrow- raise wages.
The main thing you have to understand about macroeconomic theory — both of the type used by academics and the type employed by private-sector forecasters — is that it doesn’t really work. Events are constantly taking macro people by surprise, counterexamples to pet theories are a dime a dozen, and the rare theory that can be tested against available data is usually rejected outright. In macroeconomics, your choice of model is usually between “awful” and “very slightly less awful.”
Most macroeconomic theories can be easily tested: all we have to do is take a look at Japan. Japan has a number of unusual traits that make it a very good proving ground for macro models, including a shrinking population, inefficient labor markets, an economy out…
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