Brexit got a special box all of its own in the latest OECD Economic Outlook. The report identified it as a major geopolitical risk, not just to the UK but to the entire world economy. The shock to the UK and EU economies would, says the OECD, cause a spillover effect across the world.
OECD economists say that Ireland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Norway (the Europe High group on this chart) are also highly exposed to the UK economy and would be severely hit by the slowdown in the UK. The shock would be nearly as bad in other European countries, all of which the OECD reckons would be 1% of GDP worse than where they would otherwise have been by 2018. (See Box 1.1 on page 31 of the Economic Outlook.)
Given the OECD’s already dismal forecasts for the developed economies, anything that might lower the rate of GDP…
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