I have just finished Philip Tetlock’s fine book about forecasting the future in an intelligent way “Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction”. His keen insights on this subject in his previous book “Expert Political Judgment” suggested that most political pundits we see in the media are no better at making precise, time bounded predictions about the future than a pack of chimps throwing darts at a dart board to generate choices.
But he has also found there is a group of people who are very good at forecasting, and his latest project realated in his new book has been to harness their skills in a forecasting tournament for the US intelligence community to make literally thousands of precise, time bounded predictions with precise estimates of likelihood to the nearest percentage point and then figure out who is great at this over endless iterations and how they do it.
Key…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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