There was an interesting post from Peter Nunns on Transportblog the other day, attempting a bit of a back-of-the-envelope decomposition of how various factors, including land use restrictions, might have contributed to the rise in real Auckland house prices over the 15 years since the end of 2001.
Nunns starts his decomposition with the suggestion that:
One simple way to disentangle these factors is to look at the relationship between consumer prices, rents, and house prices:
- When rents rise faster than general consumer prices, it indicates that housing supply is not keeping up with demand
- When house prices rise faster than rents, it indicates that financial factors – eg mortgage interest rates and tax preferences for owning residential properties – are driving up prices.
and with this chart

Disentangling the contribution of various factors isn’t easy. A lot depends on what else one can reasonably hold constant. Nunns seems to assume that…
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