If I had to guess what the three most common explanations are for the Syrian Civil War, I would go with:
- Ethnic fractionalization
- Economic inequality
- The Arab Spring
The problem is, none of these are good explanations. This post explains why.
First, some background. “Rationalist Explanations for War” is one of IR’s most-cited articles from the past twenty years, and for good reason. In it, James Fearon shows that the costs of war ensure that a range of settlements mutually preferable to war always exists. The takeaway point is very simple: you can have massive grievances against a rival, but those grievances do not explain why you go to war. Many countries have internal strife of this nature. Very few of them actually resolve their problems on the battlefield. After all, the parties could implement whatever the expected end result of the fighting would be before the…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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