I guess I spent some of 2016 arguing with conspiracy theorists, especially of the Alt Left variety, so I thought I would list the meta problems I experienced:
- Conspiracy theorists have a grossly exaggerated sense of how much control anyone has over events. Random path dependent accident, incompetence, kamikaze self-sabotage (like electing Trump or Brexit) are far more influential than deliberate conspiracy in most of the unfolding of events in the real world.
- Noise conceals signal.There are some real conspiracies like Nixon’s treason in the 1968 election to back channel sabotage the Vietnam Peace talks, Watergate, Reagan’s treason in conniving with Iran to keep the American hostages during the 1980 election, Bush’s Iraq War WMD conspiracy and Putin’s rigging the recent election for Trump. But conspiracy theorists drown out and discredit the real conspiracies. Benghazi nonsense conceals Putin’s play.
- Conspiracy theorists suffer from industrial scale Confirmation Bias: they trawl…
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