The “utility death spiral”: The utility as a regulatory creation

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  1. Young and the Invested - Riley Adams's avatar Riley Adams
    Aug 05, 2018 @ 03:57:15

    The utility death spiral was supposed to be in full swing by now with distributed generation and other distributed energy resources (e.g., energy efficiency and demand-side management) disrupting the utility business model – a model that depends on kWh sales growth to drive profits. The high cost of traditional utility service in America, combined with the increasingly affordable energy alternatives becoming available, would drive customers off the grid in droves. The result would be increasing utility rates that would continue to reinforce the incentive to go solar and leave utility assets and shareholders stranded. Customers would eventually self-supply their power needs and pay far less for it. The utility, meanwhile, would all but perish. So, at least, many in the industry thought.

    Instead, the death of the utility industry has not begun to materialize, at least not as predicted, and the utility business model is being guided down the path of evolution instead of revolution. This disruption likely will lead to a change in the utility business model, but the industry itself will not face an existential threat. It is far more likely that distributed generation and distributed energy resources will serve as complements, not substitutes for utility service. Overall, Americans are looking to pay less for their energy needs while having reliable, clean (i.e., “green”) service and letting the business model for this vision be formed through stakeholder collaboration.

    The utility business model of old requires tweaking because utility sales growth has stagnated in many parts of the country (with the notable exception expected in the Southeast, an area with low energy efficiency regulatory requirements and a growing population and industrial base ) due to a multitude of reasons, the most pressing of which are customer investments in energy efficiency, improving appliance standards, and distributed solar PV. These trends are likely to continue and threaten to upend what has been the best business model in the utility industry’s history. Utilities have delivered non-discriminatory, reliable service to everyone at the least-cost, reasonable price and relied on a growing customer base (and usage) to fund future investments, also to the benefit of customers. Customers, however, are increasingly less captive with today’s technology at their disposal. Utilities’ flintiness needs to soften and be more embracing of change or risk being permanently on the defensive.

    Utilities are keenly aware of what fighting to maintain the status quo could cost them. They are very cognizant of the history of the telecom industry in the 1980s and will do what they can to avoid being replaced altogether.

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