The estimates are based on the self-reported benefit fraud in the 2012 Chapple and Crichton paper which must be a minimum bound because you would expect at least some benefit fraudsters to be discreet in their dealings with government and the statistics bureau.

Computed from 2018 Budget papers, WINZ benefit data, Chapple and Crichton (2012), Chapple and Boston (2014). See too https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/benefit_sanctions
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