The real ‘news’ in today’s official GDP data for Q2 is not that the UK economy shrank for a second successive quarter in the three months to June, thus meeting the usual definition of a ‘recession’. That was a racing certainty anyway given the collapse in economic activity in April and the limited recovery in the monthly data for May, which had already been reported.
Given these numbers, it was also no surprise that the UK is likely to have recorded the biggest quarterly decline in GDP of any major economy (but I’ll come back to the significance of this later).
Indeed, as well as being ‘old’ news, this is not necessarily even ‘bad’ news. The slump was the result of the government’s decision to shut down large parts of the economy and to discourage many people from doing what they would normally be doing – in order to save…
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