The Treasury’s “fiscal rules” are rather like New Year’s resolutions: many of us make them, but few keep them. Nonetheless, after the spending binge during the pandemic, the Government needs some sort of framework to bring borrowing back under control.
We may not have to wait much longer. The Chancellor is expected to unveil new rules for government borrowing and debt as part of the autumn Budget on Oct 27. The broad principles are likely to be similar to those in place before Covid blew a huge hole in the public finances and caused the legislated “fiscal targets” to be suspended.
In particular, successive governments have adopted some version of the “Golden Rule”, which was first formalised in the UK by Gordon Brown in 1997. This is a commitment to borrow only to invest, rather than to fund day-to-day spending. In other words, the Government should balance the “current budget”.
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