I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons.
1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the start of last year.
2. This means that the UK was almost certainly the fastest growing G7 economy in 2021. Many like to dismiss this as a ‘dead cat bounce’ after the relatively large fall in UK GDP in 2020. But the UK still did much better than expected, even taking account of this favourable ‘base effect’.
3. To illustrate, the chart below compares different vintages of the OECD’s forecasts for last year. In December 2020 the OECD expected UK GDP to grow by 4.2% in 2021, and to be outpaced by France and Italy…
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Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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