Voters in Spain have voted in a snap general election today. Polls suggest the support for both of the large national parties, PSOE on the left and PP on the right, has been growing late in the campaign. However, no one expects either major party to be close to a majority on its own, as the PP is leading on only around 33–35% the vote per final polls. The farther left formerly represented by Podemos is running in a new alliance called Sumar, while the far-right Vox may finish in third place. A key question for the election is whether PP+Vox will be a majority and if so, will they govern together (either in coalition or in confidence-and-supply)?
One thing I always watch in Spanish elections is the inevitable differential treatment of parties by the electoral system, which can be consequential for seat shares and thus who can govern. There…
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