Prediction Markets for the Win

10 Nov 2024 Leave a comment

by Jim Rose in applied price theory, financial economics, politics - USA Tags:

The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote: Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and […]

Prediction Markets for the Win

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