Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year

12 Feb 2026 Leave a comment

by Jim Rose in econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, politics - New Zealand

With nine months to go, how much can opinion polls tell us about the general election on November 7? Short answer: not much. Based solely on polls, no one could have predicted the past three elections this early in the year they were held. Trends shifted over the subsequent months, and events (especially COVID in 2020) […]

Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year

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