Winter is here? The Germans can see Moscow – WW2 – 118 – November 28, 1941

Disaster Normalization Literature Review: Continued

Roger Pielke Jr.

Earlier this year a paper of mine was published that review more than 50 studies that employ “normalization” methodologies to assess disaster losses over time.

Pielke, R. (2020). Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessmentEnvironmental Hazards, 1-19.

Here I will continue to track literature that has been published since my review was completed.

Sajjad, M., & Chan, J. C. (2020). Tropical Cyclone Impacts on Cities: A Case of Hong KongFrontiers in Built Environment6, 172.

“It is important to note that through there is a significant increase in the TC-related non-normalized damages (95% confidence), this trend becomes insignificant after normalizing the damages with the corresponding years GDP. This finding is in line with the existing literature . . .”

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DW: What happened to Otto Warmbier in North Korea?

Book Review: “Prince Arthur: The Tudor King Who Never Was” by Sean Cunningham

Adventures of a Tudor Nerd

28999810A new dynasty is born out of war and bloodshed. Hope is restored to the land as the remains of the Houses of York and Lancaster are united when Henry VII marries Elizabeth of York. It was not until the birth of their eldest child and heir, Prince Arthur, that the union was truly complete. Arthur was the hope for the nation, but when he tragically died shortly after marrying Catherine of Aragon, he was replaced by his younger brother who would become King Henry VIII. Arthur’s life was indeed very short, but his legacy and untimely death altered the course of history forever. Arthur tends to be a footnote in history, between Henry VII’s and Henry VIII’s reigns, but what was this young prince like? Why did his death leave such a large hole in the plans for the future of the Tudor dynasty? What was his relationship like…

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David Card: The Economics of Immigration

The Wire – Stringer Bell teaches Marlo how business is done

Skyhooks – All My Friends Are Getting Married 1975

Thanksgiving

John Taylor and the thesis that Taylor Rule deviations caused the global financial crisis

longandvariable

John Taylor [here/here] recently reiterated his views on what caused the global financial crisis.

He contends the following.  That the Great Moderation was due to adherence to the Taylor Rule [and to ‘rules-based’ fiscal policy].  That during the early 2000s, monetary policy was set looser than that prescribed by the Taylor Rule.  This caused the build up of debt and risk-taking, which ultimately led to the bust, and the end of the Great Moderation.  Weak activity following the crisis has been due to departures from rules based monetary policy, in the form of unconventional monetary policy.   And departure from rules based fiscal policy, in the form of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Obama in 2009.  These departures have created uncertainty that has weighed against activity.  Tighter policy on both counts would have led to more buoyant activity during the recovery on account of being more certain.

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